ATP Rankings battle for the year-end No 1: Jannik Sinner v Alexander Zverev v Carlos Alcaraz
Jannik Sinner is the hot favourite to finish the 2024 season as the year-end No 1, but what are the permutations at play for those involved in the battle?
Sinner is currently in his 14th week at No 1 as he has been top of the ATP Rankings since June when he became the first Italian to achieve the feat.
The 23-year-old has solidified his position with his US Open trophy and he is in the driver’s seat to finish the year as No 1.
Novak Djokovic finished as the year-end No 1 last year as he achieved the feat a record eighth time while Carlos Alcaraz was the youngest-ever player to top the rankings at the end of a season in 2022.
Sinner looks set to become the 18th different player to achieve the feat, but who are his challengers?
Alexander Zverev is closest to the Italian in the ATP Rankings, but he is a distant second as he finds himself 4,105 behind while Carlos Alcaraz is another 385 points adrift.
Tennis great Djokovic is an additional 1,130 points behind Alcaraz while Daniil Medvedev is just 85 points away from the Serbian. Djokovic will drop 2,300 points from his Paris Masters and ATP Finals titles so he is no longer part of the discussion.
Top Five In ATP Rankings
1. Jannik Sinner Italy – 11,180 points
2. Alexander Zverev Germany – 7,075
3. Carlos Alcaraz Spain – 6,690
4. Novak Djokovic Serbia – 5,560
5. Daniil Medvedev – 5,475
There are a lot of ranking points on offer over the next two months with two ATP Masters 1000 events, the ATP Finals and several ATP 500 tournaments remaining on the calendar.
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The Shanghai Masters runs from October 2-3, the Paris Masters takes place from October 28-November 3 before the season ends with the ATP Finals from November 10-17.
The Japan Open, China Open, Erste Bank Open and Swiss Indoors Basel are the ATP 500 events still to take place.
So who is defending what?
Jannik Sinner
The Italian will drop 2,180 points in the coming weeks as he is the defending champion at the China Open and Vienna Open (each worth 500 points) for while he also finished runner-up at the ATP Finals last year so will drop 1,000 points.
Sinner also reached the fourth round in Shanghai (90) and the third round in Paris (90) in 2023.
He will effectively be on 10,900 points, but there is no doubt that he will pick up a lot of points between now and the end of the season.
Alexander Zverev
The German is realistically the only one who can catch Sinner as he is defending only 1,010 points.
Zverev won the Chengdu Open (250 points) last year, reached the semi-final in Beijing (180), lost in the second round in Shanghai (10), reached the quarter-final in Vienna (90), lost in the third round Paris and won two matches at the ATP Finals (400).
Carlos Alcaraz
The Spaniard is defending only 680 points as he was a semi-finalist in Beijing last year (180), lost in the fourth round in Shanghai (90), second round in Paris (10) and the semi-final of the ATP Finals.
Alcaraz is effectively on 6,010 points, but he would need to win everything in order to overhaul Sinner as he has a 4,890-point deficit to make up once points are dropped.
Winning the Shanghai Masters (1,000), Paris Masters (1,000), ATP Finals (1,500 for winning the title undefeated) and a couple of ATP 500 events would take him there, but then Sinner would need to lose early in every tournament.
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