ATP Rankings No 1 battle: When could Carlos Alcaraz overtake Jannik Sinner at the top?
Jannik Sinner will remain at No 1 after the next ATP Rankings update, irrespective of the outcome of the Cincinnati Open final, but there is a chance he could be No 2 in the Live Rankings once the US Open gets underway.
Four-time Grand Slam winner Sinner has spent the last 62 weeks at the top as he replaced Novak Djokovic at No 1 after the 2024 French Open, becoming the first Italian to achieve the feat.
Reigning world No 2 Alcaraz, meanwhile, has last topped the rankings in September 2023 and he has bounced between second and third place in the past two years.
Alcaraz is currently 2,240 points behind Sinner and there is a window of opportunity for the five-time Grand Slam winner to return to No 1 after the US Open. In fact, he could be ahead of Sinner in the Live Rankings at the start of the season-ending Grand Slam.
Current ATP Live Rankings
1. Jannik Sinner – 11,480 points
2. Carlos Alcaraz – 9,240 points
If Sinner successfully defends his Cincinnati crown, then he will move to 11,830 points after the final with Alcaraz staying on 9,240. If the Spaniard is crowned champion ,then he will be on 9,590 points with Sinner remaining on 11,480 points.
US Open News
A Sinner win in Cincinnati will result in the Italian increasing his lead over his closest rival to 2,590 points, but if Alcaraz wins, the advantage will be down to 1,890 points.
The US Open Calculations
With the ATP using a rolling 52-week cumulative system for the rankings, players have to defend their points from the same period 12 months ago so this is where Sinner faces an uphill task.
Sinner won the 2024 US Open and he collected 2,000 ranking points and it means he will drop those points at the start of the tournament (Sunday, August 24) while Alcaraz’s second-round exit last year means he will drop only 50 points.
Projected ATP Live Rankings At The Start Of US Open
If Alcaraz wins the Cincinnati Open, then he will start the final Grand Slam of the year in New York with 9,540 points and at No 1 in the Live Rankings as as Sinner will be on 9,480.
However, if Sinner wins the title in Ohio then he will remain at No 1 at the start of the US Open as he will be on 9,830 after the 2,000 points drop off with Alcaraz on 9,190 after his 50 points are removed.
Of course, they will then battle it out for a fortnight with Alcaraz having to outperform Sinner at the US Open if he is to return to No 1.
