ATP Rankings No 1 battle: When could Jannik Sinner replace Carlos Alcaraz at the top
Jannik Sinner’s title run at the Indian Wells Open has helped him to close the gap to Carlos Alcaraz in the rankings and he will get another chance to edge closer to the Spaniard at the Miami Open.
Alcaraz has been at No 1 in the ATP Rankings since the beginning of November when he replaced Sinner at the top and his strong start to the 2026 season with title runs at the Australian Open and Qatar Open helped him to increase his lead.
However, the Italian had a free hit at the Indian Wells Open as he didn’t have any points to defend from last year as he was serving a three-month ban from February until May due to his failed doping tests in March 2024.
And that doping ban means Sinner will have more free hits in the coming months as the next event where he will defend points is the Italian Open in May.
As things stand, Alcaraz sits on 13,550 ranking points with his big rival 2,150 points adrift in second place as he moved to 11,400 points after picking up the full compliment of 1,000 points with his California title.
What’s To Come For Both
Up next is the Miami Open and Sinner will once again not have any points to defend as he didn’t feature last year, but Alcaraz is also in a good position as he was stunned in the second round by David Goffin 12 months ago so he will only drop 10 points, which he will earn back immediately for making an appearance.
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Of course, the best-case scenario for Sinner will be another title run while Alcaraz loses in the second round again, as that would give him another 1,000 points with the gap reduced to 1,150.
If the roles are reversed and Alcaraz wins the title with the Italian losing early, then the Spaniard could stretch his lead to more than 3,000 points again.
Clay Season
Alcaraz will start the clay-court swing with his title defence at the Monte Carlo Masters while Sinner will drop zero points so there could be 2,000 point swing if the latter wins and the Spaniard loses early.
Hypothetically, if Sinner wins the Miami Open and Alcaraz loses early in Florida, the gap will be 1,150 heading to Monte Carlo and Alcaraz will then drop 1,000 points, putting him only 150 points ahead.
An early defeat for Alcaraz with Sinner reaching the latter stages could see the No 1 spot change hands.
But Sinner’s best chance will likely come later in the clay season in Rome.
Alcaraz has signed up for the Barcelona Open from 13-19 April, but he has 330 points to defend after finishing runner-up last year while Sinner is not scheduled to play any events that week.
Both missed the Madrid Open last year and Sinner will finally have points to defend at the Italian Open as he finished runner-up to Alcaraz last year in his comeback event.
The Italian will drop 650 points and Alcaraz will drop 1,000.
In total, Alcaraz will drop 2,340 points from the Miami Open until the Italian Open while Sinner will drop only 650 points.
Meanwhile, there is a total of 4,500 up for grabs if you play the four ATP Masters 1000 tournaments and one ATP 500 tournament.
