ATP Rankings No 1 race: Could Carlos Alcaraz replace Jannik Sinner at top after Wimbledon?
Carlos Alcaraz has managed to claw back a chunk of the points deficit in his ATP Rankings battle with Jannik Sinner so when could he possibly return to No 1?
Sinner has occupied first place for the past 55 weeks as he first rose to No 1 after the 2024 French Open while Alcaraz was last in top spot in September 2023.
The Italian enjoyed a 4,820-point advantage over his rival – who was down in third place – after he successfully defended his Australian Open title at the beginning of the year, but he then spent three months on the sidelines as he was banned for his failed drug tests in March 2024.
Alcaraz also upped his level as he has won four tournaments in the last two months with his titles coming at the Monte Carlo Masters, Italian Open, French Open and Queen’s Club, while he also finished runner-up at the Barcelona Open.
Those tournaments were worth 4,380 ranking points, but of course the Spaniard also dropped points from his results from the previous year while Sinner also added points as he finished runner-up in Rome and Paris.
Alcaraz now finds himself “just” 1,130 points behind the three-time Grand Slam winner with Wimbledon around the corner.
Top 5 In ATP Rankings Ahead Of Wimbledon:
1. Jannik Sinner – 10,430
2. Carlos Alcaraz – 9,300
3. Alexander Zverev – 6,500
4. Jack Draper – 4,650
5. Taylor Fritz – 4,635
So is it mathematically possible for Alcaraz to replace Sinner after the third major of the year at SW19?
The answer is no as Alcaraz is the reigning Wimbledon champion so will drop 2,000 points at the start and will then have to “earn” those points back during the tournament.
Sinner, meanwhile, reached the quarter-final in 2024 and he will drop 400 points.
Sinner v Alcaraz after points drop
Sinner will move to 10,030 points once his 2024 Wimbledon points are deducted while Alcaraz will be on 7,300.
Even in the worst-case scenario where Sinner loses in the first round, he will be on 10,040 after the 2025 edition while Alcaraz’s best hope is to successfully defend his title and move back to 9,300.
It means there will still be a gap of at least 740 points after the grass-court Grand Slam.
Instead, August will represent Alcaraz with his first opportunity to return to No 1 as he only has 10 points defend at the two ATP Masters 1000 events.
Last year he missed the Canadian Open as it clashed with 2024 Paris Olympics while he lost in the second round of the Cincinnati Masters.
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Sinner, meanwhile, will drop 1,400 points as he reached the quarter-final in Montreal (400) and won the Cincinnati title (1,000).
The Italian will also battle to stay at No 1 at the US Open as he is defending 2,000 points following his title run last year while Alcaraz lost in the second round.
But of course, Alcaraz will first need to get over the Wimbledon hurdle as he looks to win the tournament for a third year in a row.
