ATP Rankings No 1 scenarios for French Open after Novak Djokovic’s surprise Geneva move
Jannik Sinner remains the odds-on favourite to become world No 1 after the French Open although Novak Djokovic’s decision to enter the Geneva Open could add a twist to the storyline.
As things stand, Sinner will become the unofficial world No 1 next week as Djokovic will drop 2,000 points as the defending champion at Roland Garros while the Italian will only drop 45 points as he exited the semi-final in 2023.
Before Djokovic shocked the tennis community by entering the the ATP 250 event in Switzerland, the permutations for the world No 1 ranking were simple as Sinner was set to take an 865-point lead into Roland Garros.
It meant the 24-time Grand Slam winner had to reach at least the final of the tournament to stand any chance of staying ahead of Sinner in the rankings after the Paris event.
Rankings After 2023 Roland Garros Points Drop (Before Geneva)
1. Jannik Sinner – 8,725 points
2. Novak Djokovic – 7,860
3. Carlos Alcaraz – 6 580
4. Daniil Medvedev – 6,335
5. Alexander Zverev – 5 625
Had Djokovic successfully defended his title in Paris then Sinner would have needed to finish runner-up to deny the Serbian the chance to remain at the top. On the flip side, if Serbian lost the final then Sinner would have become the official world No 1 by reaching the semi-final.
Djokovic, though, has decided to enter the Geneva Open as he looks for match practice ahead of the French Open. The three-time Roland Garros winner has played only six matches on the surface this year and he hopes to get some time on the red dirt under his belt before the Paris event starts on Sunday.
READ MORE: 2024 ATP prize money leaders: Jannik Sinner No 1, Novak Djokovic misses out on top 10
So what happens if Djokovic enjoys an extended run this week?
He would need to reach at least the semi-final in Switzerland for it to have an impact on the rankings after the French Open. If he makes it to the last four then he will earn 90 points, which would reduce Sinner’s lead at Roland Garros to 775 points.
That would mean Djokovic could hold onto the top spot by reaching the semi-final (worth 800 points), but that would then depend on Sinner not making it past the first round at Roland Garros.
If Djokovic wins the title then he would reduce Sinner’s lead to 615 points and he would again have to reach at least the semi-final, but Sinner will then have to exit the clay-court Grand Slam before the fourth round.
There are of course major doubts over Sinner’s participation at the French Open as the reigning Australian Open champion has not played since the beginning of May.
The 22-year-old first injured his hip during his third-round match at the Madrid Open, but won the match against Pavel Kotov and followed it up with victory over Karen Khachanov. However, he then withdrew from his quarter-final match and also skipped the Italian Open.
READ MORE: Novak Djokovic’s Geneva Open decision leaves former world No 1 ‘shocked’
