Carlos Alcaraz needs to make a huge decision after shock Madrid Open defeat

Kevin Palmer
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Carlos Alcaraz is nursing an arm injury
Carlos Alcaraz is nursing an arm injury

Carlos Alcaraz’s defeat at the hands of Andrey Rublev at the Madrid Open may just be a blessing in disguise for the 20-year-old Spaniard – but only if he makes the right decision next.

The Wimbledon champion’s 4-6 6-3 6-2 defeat may have stunned the Spanish fans hoping to see their hero win in Madrid for a third successive year, but Alcaraz is not in the same position he was in for the last two editions of this tournament.

With his forearm injury ruling him out of this season’s opening clay court events in Monte Carlos and Barcelona, Alcaraz will have been relieved to play three matches in Madrid and perform at a high level.

Now he needs to take a step back and consider whether playing in Rome later this month is a wise move, with the bigger goal of a first title on the Roland Garros clay his chief focus.

Alcaraz will get medical advice before he makes that decision, but the notion that he will be lacking matches on clay if he makes the French Open his next tournament should not be a concern.

He will be among the top four seeds at Roland Garros and should face relatively moderate opposition in the opening couple of rounds in Paris.

That will give the 20-year-old ample opportunity to get his body ready for the challenges that will lie in wait over the course of the two weeks at the French Open and may well give him the best chance of lasting the course physically.

Instead of viewing his defeat against a resurgent Rublev, who has struggled for form in recent weeks but has rediscovered his confidence on the clay courts in Madrid.

READ MORE: Carlos Alcaraz’s coach reveals one key quality he would like the Spaniard to develop

The form Rublev showcased as he beat Alcaraz for the first time should give him hope that he can be a factor at Roland Garros, with so many questions remaining unanswered heading into the second major of the year.

It seems unlikely that 14-time Grand Slam champion Rafael Nadal could be a factor in best-of-five-set matches as he continues to battle his physical limitations in the final weeks of his career.

Defending champion Novak Djokovic will also be heading to Paris with questions to answer after a disappointing start to 2024 and form man Jannik Sinner has admitted he is nursing a hop problem.

That script means the draw could be wide open in the French capital and a fully fit Alcaraz may potentially be the favourite to take the title.

So this is the moment for Alcaraz, his coach Juan Carlos Ferrero and the wider team around him to assess the risk and reward of playing another match ahead of a long and gruelling two-week major championship.

Ranking points will not be a factor in the decision as Alcaraz only has 45 points to defend in Rome as he was knocked out by Fabian Marozsan in the last-32 of the tournament last year, meaning he only had 45 points to defend from the Masters 1000 tournament.

Victory in Rome would not lift him above Sinner and into the top two of the world rankings, so the risk of playing and further aggravating his forearm problem appears to be less appealing than taking three weeks off and building a more structured preparation that will give Alcaraz the chance to build slowly towards one of his biggest goals of the year.

Short-term pain can leads to long-term gains if sportsmen make the right decisions with an injury and that has to be a factor Alcaraz weighs up as he decides whether to play in a Rome Masters event that gets underway on May 8.

The sensible call for Alcaraz may well be to take a step back for the bigger challenge that lies ahead.

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