What Carlos Alcaraz needs to do to secure No 1 ranking and US Open top seed ahead of Novak Djokovic

Carlos Alcaraz started his 30th week at No 1 in the ATP Rankings on Monday, but what does he need to do to secure the top seed for his US Open title defence?

The 20-year-old is currently in his fifth stint as world No 1 after returning to the top of the rankings following his victory at the Queen’s Club Championship.

His Queen’s title run also meant he was top seed for Wimbledon and he then won the winner-takes-all clash against Novak Djokovic in the grass-court Grand Slam final to stay at No 1 ahead of the North American hard-court swing.

Alcaraz, though, has dropped points since winning Wimbledon as he opted not to defend his 300 points at the ATP 500 Hamburg European Open, having finished runner-up last year, while he is also skipping the ATP 250 Croatia Open, resulting in another 150 dropped points.
As things stand, Alcaraz will head to North America with 9,225 ranking points – 430 ahead of Djokovic in second place while Daniil Medvedev is 2,000-odd points adrift in third place.

What’s to come ahead of the US Open?

The Canadian Masters and Cincinnati Open are the two big tournaments ahead of the final Grand Slam of the year and there will be 1,000 points on offer to the winner at both events.

Alcaraz has confirmed that he will play in Toronto and it is a free hit for the Spaniard as:

a) He lost in the second round last year so only has 10 points to defend and he will get that just for entering the event
b) Djokovic has opted to skip the tournament

As for the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati, Alcaraz has 180 points to defend while Djokovic has a free hit this time as he didn’t enter last year.

It means Alcaraz essentially needs to have a minimum 1,180-point advantage over Djokovic ahead of the Cincinnati Open in order to be assured of the No 1 ranking for the US Open and the only way he can reach that tally is by winning the title in Canada as finishing runner-up is worth 600 points and that will push him just above 1,000 points.

A title win in Toronto will give him a 1,430-point advantage, which will be good enough to remain top of the rankings even if Djokovic wins in Cincinnati and Alcaraz loses early as the latter only has 180 points to defend.

What happens if Alcaraz loses early in Toronto and Djokovic wins in Cincinnati?

For argument’s sake, if Alcaraz loses in the round of 16 in Canada, he will add 90 points to his lead so will have a 520-point advantage, but he will then drop 180 points as he reached the quarter-final in Ohio last year which effectively gives him a 340-point lead.

If Djokovic ends up winning the title in Cincinnati then the Serbian will be the top seed for the US Open even if Alcaraz finishes runner-up as he will wipe out the Spaniard’s lead (340 at the start of the event and 600 for reaching the final) with his 1,000 points for the victory.

Of course, these are hypothetical situations and things don’t always play out according to the form book.

READ MORE: Carlos Alcaraz’s 2023 tennis schedule: Where is the Wimbledon champion playing next and his season so far…