Carlos Alcaraz facing daunting task to stay alive in ATP Finals – full scenarios

Kevin Palmer 13 Nov 2024 11:29 PM

Pictured: Carlos Alcaraz after his match

Carlos Alcaraz waves after his match

Carlos Alcaraz needs to turn on the style against Alexander Zverev on Friday to have any chance of making progress in the ATP Finals – but a win against the German may not be enough.

Alcaraz sparked concerns over his fitness when he pulled out of practice on Tuesday due to an ongoing illness, but he found the energy to serve up an impressive performance to bounce back from his defeat to Casper Ruud on Monday with a 6-3, 7-6(8) win against Andrey Rublev.

World No 3 Alcaraz will take on Alexander Zverev on Thursday knowing he needs a victory and probably in straight sets to get through to Saturday’s semi-finals.

Zverev is all-but guaranteed a place in the last four after he beat sixth seed Ruud 7-6(3), 6-3 in a high-quality contest, with a tight first set going the way of the German as he sent down a 144mph ace to clinch the opener on a tie-break.

With the momentum on his side, new world No 2 Zverev managed to break in the eighth game to follow up his victory over Rublev and sit top of John Newcombe group.

“I do feel quite good on the serve. I do feel like I’m hitting my spots well and my speed is up from the last few weeks as well,” said Zverev on Sky Sports Tennis.

“I do feel well in that regard. I thought today’s match was better from the baseline than the first match. Casper has been serving incredibly well.”

Looking ahead to his match with Alcaraz, he added: “We’ve played some very tough battles this year at Grand Slam events in Australia and at the French Open.

“I’m expecting a good match and for him to play his best tennis yet.

“We’ll see how it goes. I’m looking forward to it. We’re both in great shape so it should be a good match.”

Alcaraz will give himself the best chance of moving into the last four if he beats Zverev in straight sets on Friday, but a complex set of scenarios are in play.

Intriguingly, ATP Finals organisers have put the Alcaraz vs Zverev match on in the afternoon session on Friday, so Ruud will have a clear idea of what he needs to do when he takes on Rublev in the evening session.

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Here are the list of scenarios heading into the final round of matches:

1) Regardless of score, if Zverev defeats Alcaraz and Ruud defeats Rublev, then Zverev wins the group and Ruud qualifies 2nd.

2) Regardless of score, if Alcaraz defeats Zverev and Rublev defeats Ruud, then Alcaraz wins the group and Zverev qualifies 2nd.

3) If Zverev defeats Alcaraz in 2 sets and Rublev defeats Ruud in 2 sets, then Zverev wins the group and order of remaining players is determined by percentage of games won.

4) If Zverev defeats Alcaraz in 2 sets and Rublev defeats Ruud in 3 sets, then Zverev wins the group and Ruud qualifies 2nd.

5) If Zverev defeats Alcaraz in 3 sets and Rublev defeats Ruud in 2 sets, then Zverev wins the group and Alcaraz qualifies 2nd.

6) If Zverev defeats Alcaraz in 3 sets and Rublev defeats Ruud in 3 sets, then Zverev wins the group and Ruud qualifies 2nd.

7) If Alcaraz defeats Zverev in 2 sets and Ruud defeats Rublev in 2 sets, then Rublev is eliminated and order of remaining players is determined by percentage of games won.

8) If Alcaraz defeats Zverev in 2 sets and Ruud defeats Rublev in 3 sets, then Alcaraz wins the group and Zverev qualifies 2nd.

9) If Alcaraz defeats Zverev in 3 sets and Ruud defeats Rublev in 2 sets, then Zverev wins the group and Ruud qualifies 2nd.

10) If Alcaraz defeats Zverev in 3 sets and Ruud defeats Rublev in 3 sets, then Zverev wins the group and Ruud qualifies 2nd.