Jannik Sinner beats Carlos Alcaraz as Taylor Fritz shines – ATP Finals predictions

Kevin Palmer 07 Nov 2024 1:52 PM

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner after the China Open final

The draw has been made for the ATP Finals in Turin and Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz may have drawn a sigh of relief – for now.

With Alcaraz slipping to third place in the ATP Rankings, the prospect of the two big winners of 2024 clashing in the group stages of the end-of-season event loomed large.

Sinner and Alcaraz shared the Grand Slam titles between them this year, but the quirks of the ATP Rankings has ensured they are heading into the final big tournament of the season acting as a sandwich for world No 2 Alexander Zverev in the top three of the men’s list, after the German won last week’s Paris Masters.

A group stage meeting between Sinner and Alcaraz would have been a blockbuster moment in front of the Italian fans, but we will have to wait for that prospect and the draw should give both a chance to reach the final weekend of the ATP Finals.

The Ilie Nastase Group at the ATP Finals will feature Sinner (1), Daniil Medvedev (4), Fritz (5) and Alex de Minaur (7), while the John Newcombe Group is led by Zverev (2) and will also include Carlos Alcaraz (3), Casper Ruud (6) and Andrey Rublev (8).

Here are some predictions for what to expect in Turin:

SINNER AND ALCARAZ WILL MEET

We may not be getting a showdown between the two stars of 2024 in the group stages of the ATP Finals, but they should renew their rivalry in either the semi-finals or the final.

Sinner’s biggest threat in his group is likely to come from Fritz, who has shown better form than Daniil Medvedev in recent weeks and will be a player to watch on the indoor hard court that should amplify the image of his serve.

Alcaraz will face a battle against Zverev in the group stage and the winner of that match will be the firm favourite to top the group, with the out-of-form duo of Ruud and Rublev completing that group.

If Sinner wins his group and Alcaraz finishes behind Zverev in his pool, the big winners from this year’s men’s tennis tour will meet in the semi-finals in Turin.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Zverev was impressive in his victory at the Paris Masters and heads to Turin as a contender to win his third ATP Finals title.

His decision to take a break from the tour after the Laver Cup appears to have put some freshness into his legs that will be lacking from group rivals Ruud and Rublev, who have played a lot of tennis as they looked to secure the points they needed to qualify for Turin.

Zverev will beat the underdogs in his group and it will all come down to his clash with Alcaraz.

Fritz has to be the player to watch in the other group.

The American has ditched the blonde hair look he had on display at the Paris Masters and he will be eager to make his mark in the ATP Finals.

Like Zverev, he has a game suited to the indoor courts and could trouble Sinner in their match if he gets his serve firing.

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QUESTION MARKS

What have Medvedev, Ruud, Rublev and De Minaur got left in the tank?

All four look to have been running on fumes for the last few weeks and that may be because they have played so much tennis in 2024, with Ruud, Rublev and De Minaur adding to their workload in recent weeks in the chase to reach the ATP Finals.

De Minaur is still nursing injury concerns, while the wheels have fallen off for Ruud and Rublev as they have slumped to a run of defeats.

Of the four, Medvedev is the player who could emerge from his run of poor results and threaten in Turin, but the money would be on all four going home after the group stages.

VERDICT

Sinner will beat Zverev in the final.

This is a bold pick as it needs Zverev to beat Alcaraz in the group stages and Sinner to beat Spain’s French Open and Wimbledon champion in the final, but that could all add up in front of Sinner’s adoring Italian fans.

If Sinner has fully recovered from the virus that ruled him out of the Paris Masters, he has to be viewed as the favourite with the Italian fans giving him an edge in potential matches against Alcaraz and Zverev.

Sinner’s win against Alcaraz as the Six Kings Slam exhibition event may not have earned him any ranking points, but it broke a run of results against his great rival and that could be a crucial psychological factor when they meet again.