Jannik Sinner the big winner as Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz fail to cash in world No 1’s absence
Jannik Sinner is now odds-on favourite to still be No 1 in the ATP Rankings when he returns to action after his ban as Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz once again failed to cash in.
The Italian is currently serving a three-month ban for his two positive drug tests in March 2024 with his last match on the ATP Tour coming at the Australian Open in January when he successfully defended his title at the season-opening Grand Slam, beating Zverev in the final.
When Sinner’s suspension started, he had a 3,695-point lead over Zverev with Alcaraz another 625 points adrift in third place.
The two challengers have had opportunities to make up some ground on the three-time Grand Slam winner in the past month, but they have failed to make the most of their chances.
Alcaraz lost in the quarter-final of the Qatar Open and Zverev lost at the same stage at the Argentina Open and Rio Open while the German also made a second-round exit from the Mexican Open.
The Indian Wells Open represented another opportunity, but again they failed to capitalise as Zverev was stunned in the second round while Alcaraz failed to defend his title, losing in the semi-final.
With all said and done for those involved in the battle for the No 1 spot after the Indian Wells Open, Sinner sits on 11,330 points in the Live Rankings with Zverev on 7,945 and Alcaraz on 6,910.
Sinner will only return on 4 May with the Italian Open his first event and all three will drop points between now and then while Zverev and Alcaraz will have an opportunity to get closer.
Tournaments And Points On Offer
Effectively, there are 3,500 points on offer for both Alcaraz and Zverev in the next few weeks with three more ATP Masters 1000 events on the closer.
Both are expected to play at the Miami Open, Monte Carlo Masters and Madrid Open while they are also set to feature at ATP 500 level with Zverev in line to play at the Bavarian International Tennis Championships and Alcaraz signing up for the Barcelona Open.
Zverev’s Possibilities
The German is dropping 650 points (400 Miami, 100 Monte Carlo, 50 Munich, 100 Madrid) so he will need to earn 2,435 points from a possible 3,500.
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Winning two Masters tournaments and the ATP 500 event in Munich will get him to the coveted No 1 spot for the first time in his career. He can also lose early in Munich and then enjoy a deep run at the third Masters event.
Alcaraz’s Possibilities
Following his failure to successfully defend his Indian Wells Open crown, the four-time Grand Slam winner has a mountain to climb as he needs 3,220 points from four tournaments.
Alcaraz basically needs to win all three ATP Masters 1000 events and reach the final of the Barcelona Open.
So it is mathematically possible but highly unlikely for both Zverev and Alcaraz.
Sinner is currently in his 40th week at No 1 in the ATP Rankings and if he is already assured of moving up to No 13th in the all-time list as he will surpass Andy Murray (41) and Gustavo Kuerten (43) in the coming weeks.
