Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz’s battle to replace Jannik Sinner as world No 1
Jannik Sinner will miss the next three months of action on the ATP Tour and it could have a big impact on his status as the world No 1.
The three-time Grand Slam winner has been top of the ATP Rankings since June last year as he replaced all-time great Novak Djokovic after the French Open.
Sinner is currently in his 37th consecutive week at No 1 and that total will grow over the next few weeks due to his massive points advantage at the top.
After the latest rankings update in which he dropped 500 points from last year’s Rotterdam Open title run, Sinner finds himself on 11,330 points with Alexander Zverev on 8,135 and Carlos Alcaraz third on 7,410.
With the Italian’s ban running from 9 February until 4 May, he is expected to miss six ATP Tour events (Qatar Open, Indian Wells Open, Miami Open, Monte Carlo Masters, Barcelona Open and Madrid Open).
After reaching an agreement with Sinner’s legal representatives, the World Anti-Doping Agency confirmed that they won’t strip him of any points or prize money earned during the 2024 season despite the failed dope tests.
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“Based on the unique set of facts of this case, a three-month suspension is deemed to be an appropriate outcome. As previously stated, WADA did not seek a disqualification of any results, save that which was previously imposed by the tribunal of first instance,” a statement read.
The good news is that he will only drop another 1,600 points from his results from the previous year.
The Miami Open (1,000), Monte Carlo Masters (400) and Madrid Open (200) are the tournaments where he had points to defend. He reached the semi-final in Indian Wells last year, but those points have already been deducted following the initial ruling from the International Tennis Integrity Agency (ITIA) in August last year.
That effectively puts the 23-year-old on 9,730 points (11,330 minus 1,600) before he returns, meaning Zverev has to make 1,596 points to get past Sinner by the time the Italian Open takes place in mid-May while Alcaraz has a 2,321-point deficit to overcome.
But things will get a little more complicated for the world No 1’s two rivals as they will also drop points in the coming months.
Zverev has 850 points to defend until the ATP Masters tournament in Rome while Alcaraz will drop 1,400 points.
So in total, Zverev has to earn 2,446 points (1,596 plus 850) between now and the Italian Open while Alcaraz has a 3,721-point mountain to climb (2,321 plus 1,400).
Of course it is not impossible for either as they both have several tournaments between now and then.
Zverev is set to compete at the Mexican Open (500), Indian Wells Open (1,000), Miami Open (1,000), Monte Carlo Masters (1,000), Bavarian Championships (500) and Madrid Open (1,000) so there is a maximum of 5,000 points to win.
Theoretically, the German could replace Sinner at the top by mid-April if he wins the Sunshine Doule and the Monte Carlo Masters.
Zverev is currently sitting at a career-high No 2 in the ATP Rankings and he would become only the second German men’s world No 1 after Boris Becker while Alcaraz has previously spent 36 weeks at the top of the rankings.
Alcaraz will play at Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, Madrid while his other two events are the Qatar Open (also 500) and Barcelona Open (500).
If Alcaraz wins four ATP Masters tournaments in a row (Indian Wells to Madrid) then he will pick up 4,000 points.
But even if Zverev or Alcaraz do the impossible, Sinner will get an opportunity to return to the top again at the Italian Open (1,000) as he doesn’t have any points to defend at the tournament.
They will then head to Roland Garros where Alcaraz will drop 2,000 points as the defending champion and Zverev 1,300 after finishing runner-up last year. Sinner, meanwhile, lost in the semi-final so will drop 800 points.
