Battle for world No 1 ranking: Assessing Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Novak Djokovic’s chances

ATP Tour

Shahida Jacobs
May 25, 2023

Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Novak Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas will be in a four-way battle for the world No 1 ranking at Roland Garros over the next fortnight.

Spaniard Alcaraz started his third stint at No 1 in the ATP Rankings on Monday – replacing Djokovic at the top with the 22-time Grand Slam winner dropping to No 3 after also being overtaking by Italian Open champion Medvedev.

As things stand, Alcaraz will head to the French Open with 6,815 points and he is followed by Medvedev (6,330), Djokovic (5,955), Casper Ruud (4,960 – although the Norwegian is still in action in Geneva and his points tally could change) and Tsitsipas (4,775).

Ruud finished runner-up to Rafael Nadal last year so he has 1,200 points to defend and even if he does win the title in Geneva this week and the Roland Garros trophy then he will have 5,965 points – already below Alcaraz’s Paris entry point of 6,455 points.

Tsitsipas’ chances of becoming world No 1 for the first time are slip to non-existent as he would have to win the French Open and hope Alcaraz loses before the fourth round, Medvedev before the quarter-final and Djokovic before the final.

Carlos Alcaraz – 6,815 points

Defending points – 360
First round – 6,465
Second round – 6,500
Third round – 6,545
Fourth round – 6,635
Quarter-final – 6,815
Semi-final – 7,175
Runner-up – 7,655
Winner – 8,455

That leaves Alcaraz, Medvedev and Djokovic as the favourites with the former the man in the driving seat as he has a 305-point lead over Medvedev and 860 over Djokovic.

A title win for either Alcaraz – who will have to defeat Djokovic in the semi-final as they are in the same half of the draw – or Medvedev will hand them the No 1 ranking while if Djokovic can also return to the top, but he needs to hope he doesn’t face the Russian in the final.

Daniil Medvedev – 6,330

Defending points – 180
First round – 6,160
Second round – 6,195
Third round – 6,240
Fourth round – 6,330
Quarter-final – 6,510
Semi-final – 6,870
Runner-up – 7,350
Winner – 8,150

Novak Djokovic – 5,955 points

Defending points – 360
First round – 5,608
Second round – 5,640
Third round – 5,685
Fourth round – 5,775
Quarter-final – 5,955
Semi-final – 6,315
Runner-up – 6,795
Winner – 7,595

Alcaraz has 360 points to defend and he could also secure the No 1 ranking for another couple of weeks if he reaches the last 16 and Medvedev fails to reach the quarter-final and Djokovic the semi-final.

Medvedev, meanwhile, needs to reach at least the last eight to have any hope of reclaiming the No 1 spot, but then Alcaraz needs to lose in the second round and Djokovic in the semi-final.

Stefanos Tsitsipas – 4,775 points

Defending points – 180
First round – 4,605
Second round – 4,640
Third round – 5,685
Fourth round – 4,775
Quarter-final – 4,955
Semi-final – 5,315
Runner-up – 5,795
Final – 6,595

Djokovic can only return to the top with a run to the final as a semi-final spot will only give him 6,315 points while Alcaraz will effectively start the tournament of 6,455 points.

If the Serbian does finish runner-up in Paris, then he needs to hope Medvedev is not the man who ends up winning the title – given he will likely have to defeat Alcaraz in the semi-final.

Carlos Alcaraz Daniil Medvedev Novak Djokovic Stefanos Tsitsipas