Why Daniil Medvedev is a banker to make it to the last four of the Australian Open
Four of the last six men’s Grand Slam singles finals contested on hard courts have featured Daniil Medvedev and on this surface he is a match for any player in the world.
Indian Wells and the Australian Open are the only remaining big titles on hard courts that Medvedev has not won and he has reached the championship match in both tournaments.
Medvedev made back-to-back Australian Open finals in 2021 and 2022 and heads into the 2024 tournament with a 75% win rate in Melbourne.
In 2023, Medvedev had an incredible year on hard courts notching 49 wins alongside the 12 losses he suffered. He contested seven championship matches on the surface last term, winning titles in Rotterdam, Qatar and Dubai for a hat-trick of crowns in February alone.
He would then contest both finals during the Sunshine Double, making it to his first championship match at Indian Wells despite continuously bemoaning he slow speed of the surface.
Miami was a little quicker and Medvedev claimed his maiden title at the event after missing out in California.
Medvedev had some memorable battles with the likes of Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic in 2023.
After he got one over on Sinner in Miami, the Italian go more than his measure of revenge as he bested the Russian in both Vienna and Beijing.
He might have lost to Carlos Alcaraz in the Indian Wells final but he took his revenge at the US Open when he upset everyone’s expectations of another Alcaraz vs Djokovic duel.
Medvedev isn’t attracting the pre-tournament buzz that the likes of Djokovic, Sinner and Alcaraz are and that is surprising considering the level he has maintained on his clear favourite surface.
His 2023 US Open semi-final win over Alcaraz showed that you simply cannot write off Medvedev when it comes to big matches on hard courts.
Medvedev’s greatest strength on hard courts lies in the fact that he keeps his game quite simple and sraightforward.
He has undeniable physical gifts that help make him a freakish player when it comes to defence.
His impeccable serving is greatly aided by his height. Despite being well behind the baseline, his ability to force an additional shot at the end of his range forces opponents into errors.
From behind the baseline, Medvedev is unbreakable and has the patience to outlast all but the most tenacious opponent.
His game isn’t very spectacular, but it’s also not as physically demanding as he style of Alcaraz for instance, which helps the Russian stay in matches longer and engineer fightbacks in matches where he is well behind.
Medvedev’s physical efficiency and emphasis on energy conservation are key components of his game, especially on the hard courts where he plays because they are notoriously unforgiving.
What his opponents will find to be a nuisance is Medvedev’s deep return position and his consistency on both wings. He just doesn’t go away and most players will punch themselves out trying to get on top.
Medvedev looks like a banker as far as making it down to the last four of the Australian Open.
The world No 3 starts his Australian Open at the Margaret Court Arena on Monday when he faces Frenchman Terence Atmane.
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