Roger Federer picks his underdog for Australian Open women’s title
Aryna Sabalenka is the favourite to win the Australian Open, but Roger Federer has revealed his underdog to win the first major of the 2026 tennis season.
World No 1 Sabalenka is gunning for a third title at the hard-court Grand Slam and she will kick off her tournament in peak shape as she won the warm-up Brisbane International, beating defending Australian Open champion Madison Keys on the way to the title.
But it’s not just her 2026 season form Down Under that is impressive; it’s her performances the past few years as she has won 38 of her last 40 matches, with her only defeats against Keys at Melbourne last year and against Elena Rybakina in the final of the 2024 Brisbane event.
There is no question she is the player to beat while world No 2 Iga Swiatek and No 3 Coco Gauff are also expected to challenge, according to the 20-time Grand Slam winner.
Both players won Grand Slams last year as Gauff lifted the Roland Garros title and Swiatek won at Wimbledon while they also have pedigree on hard courts with the Pole winning the US Open in 2022 and the American a year later.
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As for their records at the Australian Open, both have reached the semi-finals with Swiatek’s run to the last four coming in 2022 and 2025 while Gauff lost at that stage in 2024 and the quarter-final last year.
In an interview with Eurosport, Federer said: “Sabalenka was very strong on hard courts.
“Then I think of Coco and Iga.”
The Swiss also added his dark horse for the title as he picked his compatriot Belinda Bencic.
The 28-year-old will be seeded 10th at Melbourne Park and she will start her campaign on the back of a superb United Cup where she won five out of five singles matches and four out of five mixed doubles clashes.
Bencic beat world No 8 Jasmine Paolini during the group stage and Swiatek in the final as she helped Switzerland to finish runners-up to Poland.
But it is not just at the United Cup where she has impressed, as she is coming off a brilliant 2025 as she started the year at No 489 after missing the bulk of 2024 to give birth to her first.
The 2020 Olympic gold medallist went on to win the Abu Dhabi Open and Pan Pacific Open last year to finish the year at No 11 in the WTA Rankings.
“And then Belinda as an underdog – ‘here she is and wins her first major’. That would be wonderful,” Federer concluded.
