Can Joao Fonseca join Roger Federer in an exclusive Grand Slam winners club?

Oli Dickson Jefford 28 Feb 2025 3:07 PM

Joao Fonseca and Roger Federer.

Joao Fonseca may well be the hottest prospect in men’s tennis right now – with many predicting big things for the Brazilian.

However, there is no guarantee that the 18-year-old will go on to reach the very top of the sport – and some key stats highlight just how tricky it could be for him.

Junior to senior success not a given

Fonseca lifted the boys’ singles title at the US Open in 2023, achieving something the likes of Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner were not able to achieve by winning a junior major.

However, winning a junior Grand Slam title has rarely led to senior Grand Slam success.

Since 1973 – the first year all four Slams held junior events – 170 different players have won a boys’ singles Grand Slam title.

However, research from bettingexpert shows that only 10 of those players – just 5.8% – have eventually gone on to win a Grand Slam senior title.

Leading the way is 20-time Grand Slam champion Roger Federer, followed by Ivan Lendl (eight), John McEnroe and Mats Wilander (seven), and Stefan Edberg (six).

The five remaining players are Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka, who both won three Grand Slam titles, and one-time major winners Marin Cilic, Andy Roddick, and Pat Cash.

Eight world No 1’s

Many have also backed Fonseca to one day top the ATP Rankings – though that has been an even rarer feat for junior Grand Slam winners.

Only eight junior major winners have gone on to be world No 1, once again lead by Federer – who held the top spot for 310 weeks, the second-most of any player.

Federer is joined by Lendl, McEnroe, Wilander, Edberg, Murray, and Roddick reaching the top spot, as did Chilean star Marcelo Rios.

To date, Rios is the only man to be ATP world No 1 without ever winning a Grand Slam singles title, though he was a finalist at the 1998 Australian Open.

Senior struggles

Fonseca cracked the top 100 following his breakout run at the Australian Open earlier this year and has since gone on to win his first career title at the Argentina Open.

That already puts the Brazilian ahead of many of his fellow junior major winners.

Research shows that 34.1% of junior Grand Slam winners (to date) have not broken the top 100 of the ATP Rankings, while 83 never won an ATP title.

While that figure will likely fluctuate as more recent junior Slam winners begin to make their way onto the ATP Tour, the overall numbers still highlight the vast differences between junior and senior success.

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Can other stars achieve double?

Outside of Fonseca, there is an array of current ATP stars towards the top of the game who are searching for senior success at Grand Slams.

Perhaps the most prominent example is world No 2 Alexander, who triumphed in the boys’ event at the 2014 Australian Open – though he has lost all three of his Grand Slam singles finals as an adult.

Other recent Grand Slam runner-ups to have previously won junior major titles include Nick Kyrgios and Taylor Fritz.

Established ATP stars Denis Shapovalov, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Tommy Paul, and Holger Rune are also among the active junior Grand Slam winners competing towards the top of the game.