Has Novak Djokovic’s former biggest strength become his key weakness?

Oli Dickson Jefford 29 Apr 2025 2:02 PM

Novak Djokovic plays a shot during his match

With 24 Grand Slams and 428 weeks as the world No 1 to his name, Novak Djokovic’s place as one of the greatest – if not the greatest – tennis players of all time is more than secured.

And, while the Serbian demonstrated several key strengths at the peak of his powers, there was one area in his game that often attracted the most attention.

Djokovic is often considered the leading returner of his generation and perhaps the greatest returner in men’s tennis history, ahead of the likes of Andre Agassi and Roger Federer.

However, has this shot been behind Djokovic’s recent lack of consistency, and a notable drop in from across recent months?

Return greatness

The ATP return rating is a key indicator of just how good the very best of the men’s game are on return, with players rated across four separate statistics.

Those four areas are the percentage of first serve return points won, the percentage of second serve points won, the percentage of return games won, and the percentage of break points converted.

Looking at historic return ratings, Djokovic is ranked seventh on the all-time ATP list, with great rival Rafael Nadal the only Grand Slam champion ahead of him; former world No 3 Guillermo Coria is ranked at the top.

Against players of all levels across his career, the 37-year-old has an overall return rating of 164.5, with arguably his most impressive stat being 55.1% of second serve return points won.

Across his career, he has also converted 44.1% of break points, won 31.7% of return games, and won 33.6% of first serve return points.

Historically, Djokovic’s record gets more impressive when he faces consistently tougher opponents.

His return rating is the fifth-highest against players inside the top 50, the third-highest against players inside the top 20, and the second-highest against players inside the top 10 – only behind Nadal.

Against top-10 players, he has won a staggering 25.4% of return games and 52.9% of second serve return points.

However, if you look at his stats across 2024 and over the past 52 weeks, it is clear to see that Djokovic’s level on return is dropping.

Recent struggles

Despite a difficult 2024 season, Djokovic was still ranked fourth in terms of overall return quality last season, with an overall rating of 157.7, just 6.8 off his overall career rating.

The only men with a higher rating than him in 2024 were Alex de Minaur (165.6), Carlos Alcaraz (162.2), and Jannik Sinner (158.4).

If you look across the past 52 weeks (April 2024 – April 2025), Djokovic remains comfortably inside the top 10 in seventh place, though his overall rating drops slightly to 154.6.

And, if you dig further, there is obvious cause for concern.

Over the past 52 weeks, Djokovic is ranked down at 35th when it comes to return stats against top-10 opponents, with a significant dip in his return rating of 115.1.

Perhaps the most notable decline comes in the percentage of return games won against top-10 players in that period, dropping from 25.4% across his career to 13.1% over the past year.

Djokovic has still won a solid 47.9% of second serve return points, though that is slightly down on his career percentage of 52.9%.

Similar trends are seen elsewhere when it comes to his return rating.

Despite having the third-highest return rating of all time against top-20 players, he is down at 16th in that area for the past 52 weeks.

Meanwhile, he is down at 19th when it comes to top-50 players overall, a drop from fifth across his entire career.

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Serve: The opposite trend

In contrast, there has been the opposite trend for Djokovic when it comes to his serve.

The ATP’s official serve rating is based on six separate statistics, including overall first serve percentage, first serve points won, and second serve points one.

Djokovic is ranked 26th of all time with a serve rating of 284.0, but if you look only at the past 52 weeks, he is up to 10th with a slightly improved rating of 287.6.

He was also rated as the 10th-best server for 2024, with an overall rating of 284.4, just above his career rate.

His improvement on serve in recent years, particularly under the guidance of former coach Goran Ivanisevic, has been well discussed.

However, there can be no denying that while his serve has become a reliable factor in his game, his returning quality has dipped dramatically.

There will likely be other factors that contribute to his recent struggles, though this may be the key area where he is failing to make a big enough impact.