Revealed: How Jannik Sinner’s improving record against lower-ranked players is key to his success
The recent months of Jannik Sinner’s career have not come without controversy, though there can be no denying the Italian is dominant at the very top.
Sinner has now spent 61 straight weeks as the world No 1 since first rising to the top of the ATP Rankings in June 2024, and has won four Grand Slam titles in the past two seasons.
Despite his three-month doping suspension this spring, the Italian has still won Grand Slam titles in Melbourne and London in 2025, and was just one point away from glory in the Roland Garros final.
With a 3,440-point lead over world No 2 Carlos Alcaraz in the ATP Rankings, the 23-year-old’s position at the very top is secure for now.
All this begs one question: what exactly makes Sinner so dominant?
There are plenty of hypothetical reasons as to why this could be the case, but one clear factor has begun to emerge following his rise to the very top over the past two years.
Upset immune
Sinner won his first Masters 1000 title at the Canadian Open in August 2023, defeating Alex de Minaur to claim what was the biggest title of his career until that point.
Straight off the back of that, the Italian was unable to make any real impact at the Cincinnati Open, with the eighth seed stunned by world No 66 Dusan Lajovic in his opening match.
Since that loss to Lajovic, Sinner has won 12 ATP Tour titles; these include four Grand Slam titles, the 2024 ATP Finals title, and a further three Masters 1000 titles – including last year’s Cincinnati Open.
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That loss to the Serbian, coupled with Sinner’s significant triumph in Toronto two years ago, cements a notable point in the Italian’s dominance over lower-ranked players.
Since the beginning of the 2023 Canadian Open, the 23-year-old has played 75 matches against players ranked outside the top 20 of the ATP Rankings.
In those 75 matches, he has lost just twice: once to Lajovic in Cincinnati, and then to Alexander Bublik at the Halle Open this June.
Sinner’s staggering 73-2 record represents an astonishing 97.33% win record in his last 75 matches against opponents ranked 21st or lower on tour.
While it would be expected for a top-10 player, and now a world No 1 player, to have an impressive record against the lower-ranked field, the Italian’s ability to make himself all-but-immune to upsets has undoubtedly been key in his success.
At Grand Slam level, the last time Sinner lost to a player ranked outside the top 20 was world No 79 Daniel Altmaier in the second round of the 2023 French Open.
The Italian has ammased a staggering 51-5 record at Grand Slam tournaments since then, with only one loss to any player even outside the top 10 – to world No 12 Alexander Zverev at the 2023 US Open.
Across all ATP-level tournaments, Sinner had won 66 straight matches against players outside the top 20 before losing to world No 45 Bublik in Halle, almost two years after losing to Lajovic in Cincinnati.
That defeat to Bublik has not dented the 23-year-old’s confidence, with five wins from five over such opponents since then, including the quickest win of his career over Daniel Elahi Galan in Cincinatti Open round two action.
Ahead of his Cincinnati Open round-three match against world No 35 Gabriel Diallo on Monday night, Sinner has an overall win record of 84.06% (211-40) against opponents outside the top-20 on the ATP.
While that is still a hugely impressive record overall, the significant percentage uptick in the past two years showcases the clear elevation and improvement in his game.
Comparing Sinner’s record
Sinner’s overall record of 84.06% against opponents outside the top 20 is impressive, but how does it compare to other greats of the game in recent years?
The world No 1 narrowly trails main rival Alcaraz, who has an 86.83% (178-27) across his career so far.
However, if we look at the Spaniard’s last 75 matches, he holds a 67-8 record, a win percentage of 89.33%; a total that is not quite at Sinner’s record from his last 75 matches.
World No 7 and 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic holds a staggering 90.07% record (744-82) across his career, with Roger Federer on 88.55% (866-112), and Rafael Nadal on 89.54% (745-87).
Current ATP world No 3 Zverev holds a 78.99% (391-104) record, while world No 4 Taylor Fritz has a 65.82% (260-135) record to date.
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