What Carlos Alcaraz needs to deny Jannik Sinner year-end No 1 ranking at ATP Finals
Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have been a class apart from the rest of the ATP Tour in 2025, and could be in line for one final showdown this season.
The pair are the top two seeds at the ATP Finals in Turin and are unsurprisingly the heavy favourites for the title, though it is not just silverware at stake.
The battle to finish 2025 as the year-end No 1 will be decided in Turin this week, with Alcaraz ahead of Sinner coming into this final tournament — here’s how things could pan out.
As it stands
Having lost his position atop the ATP Rankings after the US Open, Sinner’s run to the Paris Masters title — coupled with Alcaraz’s round-two exit — saw the Italian return to world No 1 this Monday.
Sinner currently holds 11,500 points, compared to Alcaraz’s total of 11,250.
However, the Italian’s stay will be short-lived, with Alcaraz set to return to world No 1 when last year’s ATP Finals points are removed next week.
The Spaniard will drop 200 points to 11,050 in the ATP Rankings, while Sinner will drop a full 1,500 points from his unbeaten run to the ATP Finals title in 2024.
He will hold exactly 10,000 points, 1,040 points behind Alcaraz in both the ATP Rankings and the ATP Race for this season.
With a commanding lead, Alcaraz will hope to wrap up the year-end No 1 ranking quickly.
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What does Alcaraz need to do?
The maximum points that Sinner can hold after the ATP Finals is once again 11,500, should the reigning champion again win the title undefeated.
With Alcaraz on 11,050 points already this year, he just needs 451 points to move to 11,501 points — enough to seal year-end No 1, regardless of how Sinner fares in Turin.
Each round-robin match at the ATP Finals is worth 200 ranking points, with Alcaraz starting his campaign with an opener versus Alex de Minaur on Sunday.
Should the Spaniard win all three of his round-robin matches, he will have already earned 600 ranking points ahead of his semi-final — enough to confirm the year-end No 1 spot for 2025.
If Alcaraz were to win two matches and taste one defeat, he would have earned 400 points, not quite enough to guarantee the year-end position.
However, should the Spaniard progress with a 2-1 round-robin record, he could then guarantee year-end world No 1 by winning his semi-final, which in itself would be worth another 400 ranking points — taking his tournament total to 800 points.
The same scenario would play out if Alcaraz were able to progress with just one win in the round-robin stage, with a semi-final win on top of that bringing his tournament total to 600 points.
Any scenario which puts Alcaraz in the final will be enough to secure him the year-end No 1 ranking, while three round-robin wins would be enough regardless of how he then fares in the knockout round.
What does Sinner need?
After topping the ATP Rankings at the end of 2024, Sinner’s hope of a second straight year-end No 1 finish is not under his control.
However, there are still a few scenarios in which the Italian can end the year in top spot.
As previously mentioned, an unbeaten run to the title would earn Sinner 1,500 ranking points; three round-robin wins worth 200 points each, a semi-final win worth 400 points, and a final win worth 500 points.
If the Italian did win the title unbeaten, he would finish the year as the world No 1 if Alcaraz won only two of his round-robin matches and did not progress, or won two of his three matches and then lost in the semi-final.
Should Sinner win the title with one round-robin loss, he would take 1,300 points from the tournament and end the year on 11,300 points.
For that to be enough to seal the year-end No 1 ranking, he would need Alcaraz to win only one round-robin match and exit at the group stage, or win one round-robin match and then lose in the semi-final.
If the Italian managed to progress and win the title after just one round-robin win, earning 1,100 points in total, he would need Alcaraz to lose every round-robin match he plays.
Any scenario in which Sinner does not win the title is enough for Alcaraz to end the year as the world No 1, regardless of how he himself fares.
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