Djokovic vs Alcaraz showdown, Swiatek & Gauff look to pounce – Australian Open predictions

Week one of the Australian Open is officially done and dusted, with the second week of action in Melbourne having got underway on Sunday.
With seven days of the tournament left, we make some predictions for what could happen in Melbourne over the next few days.
Alcaraz vs Djokovic – who wins?
It is the match the whole tennis world was waiting for: Carlos Alcaraz will face Novak Djokovic in the last eight on Tuesday.
Alcaraz and Djokovic have not met since the Olympic final won by the Serbian last summer, and this will be the fourth meeting between the two at Grand Slam level – but the first at the Australian Open.
Of the two, it is third seed Alcaraz – looking to complete the Career Grand Slam – who has arguably been the most impressive so far, dropping just one set on his way to this stage.
However, Djokovic has rounded into form nicely, with convincing wins over Tomas Machac and Jiri Lehecka in his last two matches sending a statement of intent to the rest of the draw.
Form over recent months – and fitness factor over a best-of-five match – tilts this encounter in Alcaraz’s favour, though 10-time champion Djokovic should not be discounted.
Sinner’s clear path
World No 1 Jannik Sinner was arguably always the favourite to lift the title or, at the very least, the strong favourite to reach the final from the top half of the draw.
With fourth seed Taylor Fritz and fifth seed Daniil Medvedev, two of his potential semi-final opponents, already out of the tournament, his status as the favourite has only increased.
Sinner has not played his best tennis in Melbourne but he will be expected to beat Holger Rune on Monday – and is 9-0 against potential his quarter-final opponent, eighth seed Alex de Minaur.
With 21st seed Ben Shelton the highest-ranked player he could potentially face in the last four, it is hard to see anyone stopping the 23-year-old from reaching a third major final.
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Swiatek rounding into form
World No 2 Iga Swiatek came into the Australian Open with one or two question marks over her head – questions she has so far answered emphatically.
With just 10 games dropped across three matches – including a 6-1, 6-0 win over Emma Raducanu in the third round – the Pole has arguably been the in-form player in the women’s singles draw.
Swiatek is an overwhelming favourite against lucky loser Eva Lys on Monday and would be a warm favourite against eighth seed Emma Navarro or ninth seed Daria Kasatkina in the last eight.
Sixth seed Elena Rybakina could be a danger in the semi-final but, with the Kazakh facing injury concerns, there is no doubt Swiatek must be the favourite to reach her sixth Grand Slam final.
Can Gauff halt Sabalenka’s charge?
From the moment the women’s singles draw came out, all eyes were on a potential semi-final clash between top seed Aryna Sabalenka and third seed Coco Gauff.
The pre-tournament favourites have now reached the last eight and a second straight semi-final showdown between the two – following Sabalenka’s win over Gauff in 2024 – looks probable.
Two-time champion Sabalenka is on an 18-match win streak in Melbourne and produced her best performance of the tournament to dispatch Mirra Andreeva 6-1, 6-2 on Sunday.
The Belarusian trails 2-1 in her head-to-head against her quarter-final opponent, 27th seed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, but they have not met since Sabalenka became a dominant WTA force.
Gauff dropped a set for the first time on Sunday, though roared back impressively to fend off a resurgent Belinda Bencic, losing just three games across the second and third sets.
The third seed does not have an easy quarter-final against 11th seed Paula Badosa, but it is one you would expect her to win on current form.
That would set up a semi-final against Sabalenka and, while the top seed is a formidable foe Down Under, Gauff’s 5-4 head-to-head lead suggests she could dethrone the defending champion.