Tennis betting preview: Improving Stefanos Tsitsipas can hit Monte-Carlo jackpot

Derek Bilton is back with his latest tennis betting tips and fancies Stefanos Tsitsipas for this week’s Monte-Carlo Masters.
After an indifferent recent run we got back on track last week with Pablo Andujar, who was tipped up at 50/1 and made the final of the Grand Prix Hassan II. Anyone who rowed in with the Spaniard at said odds should have locked in a tidy profit, given he went off at odds on in Sunday’s final against Benoit Paire before losing 6-2, 6-3.
This week the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters heralds the start of the European clay swing and all eyes will again be on the indomitable Rafael Nadal.
The Spaniard is an 11-time champion in the Principality, claiming his first success as a raw 18-year-old way back in 2005. He’s a hot favourite again this year and that’s no surprise given he has won no fewer than 33 Masters titles (with plenty of them coming on his beloved clay) in a Hall of Fame career that shows no signs of winding down just yet.
Nadal has won the last three tournaments here and it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see him as the last man standing when the red dust finally settles next Sunday. However, he’s not been seen since withdrawing from an Indian Wells semi-final showdown with Roger Federer and there are fresh concerns about those troublesome knees of his.
If he was totally healthy he would rate as a lock once again but given we don’t know what his mobility is like it may be worth having a speculative punt on someone at a much bigger place.
The bad news for value punters is that this is not a tournament where underdogs traditionally prosper. Indeed Nadal and world No 1 Novak Djokovic have won 13 of the past 14 titles in the Principality. An incredible stat.
The one man not called Novak or Rafa to triumph in that time? Former world No 3 Stan Wawrinka, who took down the title in fine style in 2014. Wawrinka has had a poor season but a watching brief is advised and if Nadal’s knees are still dodgy the Swiss could be huge at around the 40/1 mark to come through Rafa’s fourth quarter and win a second title here.
Djokovic looked very poor during the ‘Sunshine Swing’ and threw in a shocker of a clay campaign last season, before going through the gears at Wimbledon and the rest of the season.
He’s clear second favourite here behind Rafa but might not get out of his quarter, with the effervescent Stefanos Tsitsipas lurking. The 2018 Next Gen ATP Finals champ dusted Djokovic in their only previous ATP meting, last year at the Rogers Cup in Canada.
The story goes that in 2008 a then eight-year-old Tsitsipas had his photo taken with Djokovic in Monte Carlo, who was at that time was already firmly ensconced in the upper echelons of the world’s top 10.
Tsitsipas Snr was also present and told his starry-eyed son that one day the two of them would meet. Eleven years later and that’s likely to happen here in the last eight, and Tsitsipas would not be without a shout on current form.
Despite making his name on hard courts, Tsitsipas is very comfortable on the dirt as he demonstrated last season when he made the final in Barcelona, with a subsequent semi-final finish in Estoril. It shows you how far he’s come when you consider the fact he had to qualify for this event last season. In 2019 he rocks up as the sixth seed and I like the look of him in the outrights here at 25/1.
In you fancy punting an underdog on Monday afternoon then Diego Schwartzman ticks plenty of boxes at 5/4 to beat Britain’s Kyle Edmund. They’ve faced each other twice before on the ATP Tour, both on hard last year.
Schwartzman won the first encounter 6-1 6-2 in Canada, while Kyle got his revenge in Vienna. Schwartzman is a clay specialist though who has the tools to grind Edmund down if the Briton’s forehand is not firing.
Bilko’s Banker: Stefanos Tsitsipas to win the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters at 25/1 (bet365/888 Sport)
Best of the Rest betting sites UK: Diego Schwartzman to beat Kyle Edmund at the Monte Carlo Masters at 5/4 (Betfair)
Derek Bilton
Follow us on Twitter @T365Official and like our Facebook page.
More from Tennis365:
-
-
The Monte-Carlo Masters: Cool facts and figures about the clay event
-
Why is Roger Federer returning to clay, why did he stop, and what tournaments will he play?
-
Should David Ferrer’s sublime Miami showing prompt retirement rethink?
-
Can anyone knock Rafael Nadal off his clay-court perch this year?
-
T365 Recall: When Serena Williams cemented her greatness at the 2015 Miami Open
-
Latest
-
Australian Open
Andy Murray’s waiting game as anger mounts after tennis players fly in for Australian Open
Andy Murray is waiting to see if there is any way he compete in the Australian Open after testing positive for Covid-19.
-
News
Positive Covid cases on flights to Australia put 47 players in 14-day quarantine
Three people across two chartered flights carrying the Open hopefuls tested positive for coronavirus upon their arrival in Melbourne.
-
Tennis News
Bernard Tomic still has drive to compete, saying ‘I don’t need to play tennis again, I’ve got enough money’
“I’m risking my life, and I’m playing and competing.”
-
Tennis News
Dominic Thiem: ‘My wish for 2021 is to win a second Grand Slam title’
Dominic Thiem eyes a second Grand Slam trophy.
-
Australian Open
VIDEO and PICS: Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Serena Williams among tennis stars to arrive in Australia
This way for a video and pics of arrivals in Australia.
-
Australian Open
Official insists no special Australian Open treatment for Andy Murray after positive COVID-19 result
Andy Murray warned he won’t get preferential treatment.
-
Australian Open
Madison Keys latest player to miss Australian Open charter flight after testing positive for coronavirus
Madison Keys unlikely to play at Australian Open.
-
Australian Open
Andy Murray in race against time to play at Australian Open after testing positive for COVID-19
Andy Murray tests positive for coronavirus – report.
-
News
Andy Murray Australian Open appearance in doubt after positive test for Covid
Murray is hoping to be able to arrive in Australia at a later date.
-
Australian Open
Dominic Thiem’s coach tests positive for COVID-19, but hopes to link up with Austrian ‘soon’
Nicolas Massu hopes to fly Down Under in a few weeks.