Tennis betting preview: Clean hitting Daniil Medvedev the man to take down Washington
Derek Bilton is here with your tennis betting tips for the ATP Tour events in Washington, Los Cabos and Kitzbühel.
It was a case of so near yet so far for followers last week as our 7/1 pick Taylor Fritz made the final of the BB&T Atlanta event but found Alex de Minaur – who dropped just 10 points on serve in the final and who didn’t face a single break point all week – just too good.
We can hopefully go one better this week with three more tournaments on the calendar.
The North American hard-court swing heads to Washington for an ATP 500 event, and it promises to be a fun week for the fans in the US capital.
Alexander Zverev has won the last two Citi Open titles but the German won’t be bidding for a hat-trick this year after electing not to play. As a result Stefanos Tsitsipas headlines a stacked draw, with five of the top 15 players in the current ATP rankings heading to DC.
Tsitsipas reached the semi-finals on debut here last year before running into eventual winner Zverev. This is arguably his best surface but he struggled on the grass this summer and the layers must obviously be taking his recent iffy form into account by making him a 7/1 chance for glory this week. For good reason the bookies think this is wide open with some seriously big hitters in the draw.
Wily South African Kevin Anderson is in the top half of the draw and he has a game to be respected in these conditions. However, he has not played a great deal of tennis in 2019 and his recent resume has been poor. There’s also John Isner (a three-time finalist here), Felix Auger Aliassime and the crafty Belgian David Goffin keeping Tsitsipas company in that top half.
The bottom half of the draw looks deadly too with Daniil Medvedev, Karen Khachanov, Frances Tiafoe and Nick Kyrgios all at large. All of those players serve big but this isn’t the quickest hard court in America, as proven by wins here in recent years by artful types such as Gael Monfils (2016), Kei Nishikori (2015) and the madcap Alexandr Dolgopolov (2012).
With this in mind it could be worth taking a chance on Medvedev. The Russian is only 23 but already has four ATP titles to his name. He hits a clean ball but is also pretty crafty for a big guy and crucially is not the type of player to be discouraged when the chips are down. When he’s fully dialled in Medvedev is a major threat (as he proved with that win over Novak Djokovic in Monte Carlo) and he’s also pretty consistent, finally blasting his way into the world’s top 10 by reaching the third round at Wimbledon last month.
Three of his four Tour titles have been won in the last 12 months and he should enjoy the conditions in Washington. Medvedev will be motivated too having put himself in with a strong shout to reach the ATP Tour Finals in London later this year.
It also doesn’t hurt that Medvedev has won every one if his four previous meetings with event jolly Tsitsipas so 10/1 about the Russian looks tempting this week.
Elsewhere the final clay event of the season takes place at the Generali Open in Kitzbühel and Dominic Thiem again starts as the betting favourite. Thiem, a French Open finalist again in 2019, bombed while carrying our cash in Hamburg last week and his 8-7 lifetime record in Kitzbühel is poor enough for us to look elsewhere in the draw.
Conditions are not typical in Kitzbühel with the tournament played at altitude, meaning the ball really flies through the air.
This means players who like to go for their shots are usually rewarded and with this mind Pablo Carreno Busta looks a decent shout at 20/1.
The Spaniard might not be the force he was two years ago (he cracked the top 10 on the Tour in September 2017 after a string of fine wins) but he’s naggingly consistent on clay and was unlucky not to reach the final in Hamburg last week after losing from a set and a break up to Andrey Rublev.
Presuming he makes the adjustment to altitude in the Austrian Alps he looks a big runner in the bottom half of the draw. Humble, hardworking and patient, Carreno Busta is the antithesis to players such as Kyrgios and Bernard Tomic and it will take a good man to beat him in Austria.
Finally to Los Cabos where Taylor Fritz starts as favourite in the betting but the young American must be hurting after that loss in Atlanta on Sunday. The temperatures are not expected to dip below 90 degrees all week in Mexico so it remains to be seen whether top seed Fabio Fognini (best price 9/1 with bet365) will fancy the job in this 250 Series event.
Fognini is 32 now so might not fancy grinding it out for a week in such insane heat despite the fact he’s the defending champ here. Instead we will roll the dice with 18/1 outsider Guido Pella, who is enjoying the best season of his career.
He went on a tear at Wimbledon recently so confidence should be sky high and the Argentine should not be too hampered by the heat in Mexico. Pella has been serving well all season, and his ‘first serves made’ stats are among the highest on the Tour. If that pattern continues this week he will give himself every chance in what looks pretty unremarkable company.
Bilko’s Banker – Daniil Medvedev to win the Citi Open at 10/1 (888 Sport)
Best of the Rest #1: Pablo Carreno Busta to win the Generali Open at 20/1 (Paddy Power)
Best of the Rest #2: Guido Pella to win the Los Cabos Open at 16/1 (bet365)
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