Australian Open predictions: Aryna Sabalenka wins, Coco Gauff & Iga Swiatek beaten, Emma Raducanu struggles

Oli Dickson Jefford 10 Jan 2025 3:10 PM

Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek, and Emma Raducanu.

The Australian Open kicks off in less than two days, with anticipation building for the first Grand Slam of 2025.

Here, we make our predictions for what should be a fascinating women’s singles event in Melbourne.

First Quarter

Projected QF: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs (5) Zheng Qinwen

No woman since Martina Hingis in 1999 has won three straight Australian Open titles – can Sabalenka become the first this century to do just that?

The Belarusian has made light work of the early stages of Slams in recent years but has an intriguing start to her draw here; it’s Sloane Stephens in round one and potentially 29th seed Linda Noskova in round three.

All that is set to lead to a fourth round against 14th seed Mirra Andreeva, who so sensationally beat Sabalenka at Roland Garros last year.

However, the world No 1 dispatched Andreeva comfortably in Brisbane, and it is hard to see her not making a projected quarter-final against fifth seed Zheng – a rematch of the 2024 final.

Qinwen ended 2024 as one of the form players and has a comfortable early draw, though 12th seed Diana Shnaider in the fourth round would be a test.

Perhaps her biggest issue, though, is a 0-5 record against the top seed.

Prediction: Sabalenka def Zheng

Second Quarter

Projected QF: (3) Coco Gauff vs (7) Jessica Pegula

An all-American quarter-final clash between Gauff and Pegula is an exciting prospect, but will it pan out that way?

Gauff is one of the big title favourites and has an intriguing draw, starting with an opening-round battle against 2020 champion Sofia Kenin – who beat the world No 3 at Wimbledon in 2023.

Assuming she passes that it looks like a smooth path to the fourth round, where any one of 16th seed Jelena Ostapenko, 20th seed Karolina Muchova, or Naomi Osaka could await.

Projected quarter-final opponent Pegula has rediscovered some form in Adelaide after a difficult Asian swing and WTA Finals, with 25th seed Liudmila Samsonova in round three her likely first test.

What could be more of a battle is a fourth-round against 11th seed Paula Badosa, who surged back into form towards the end of 2024, or against 17th seed Marta Kostyuk.

Ukrainian rising star Kostyuk made her first Grand Slam quarter-final in Melbourne a year ago, and always seems to be near to her best Down Under.

Prediction: Gauff def Kostyuk

Australian Open News

Emma Raducanu told she needs to prove ‘the motivation is there’ as big rankings goal is set

Coco Gauff delivers Iga Swiatek ‘confidence’ verdict after Pole’s doping case

Third Quarter

Projected QF: (6) Elena Rybakina vs (4) Jasmine Paolini

Of all of the top seeds in Melbourne, Paolini is the one who seems to have been largely shunned when it comes to talk regarding players who could go deep into the draw.

That seems a little unfair to the Italian, who was a French Open and Wimbledon runner-up in 2024 – and made the second week at the Australian Open.

Fourth seed Paolini has a pretty kind draw overall, with 28th seed Elina Svitolina – searching for form after an injury-ravaged 2024 – in round three before 15th seed Beatriz Haddad Maia in round four.

However, the real wildcard in this quarter of the draw is Rybakina, and how the Kazakh could fare in Melbourne.

Her form at majors since reaching the final here two years ago has been patchy, and she finds herself in the middle of a media storm currently.

But, she looked good at the United Cup, has a calm early draw – and knows how to play well Down Under.

Prediction: Rybakina def Paolini

Fourth Quarter

Projected QF: (8) Emma Navarro vs (2) Iga Swiatek

Swiatek has not made the Australian Open quarter-finals since 2022 and has not won a WTA title since the French Open – can she turn the tables on either of those stats here?

The second seed has a tough – but not impassable – draw early on, starting with Katerina Siniakova before a potential clash against Rebecca Sramkova.

That could lead to a third round against 26th seed Ekaterina Alexandrova or Emma Raducanu – who face off in round one – or even Amanda Anisimova, who has made the second week in Melbourne three times.

The size of the big hitters here could halt Raducanu’s hopes of a surge and potentially also dent Swiatek, though the inconsistencies of both Alexandrova and Anisimova make them difficult to predict.

For whoever comes through, it could be 13th seed Anna Kalinskaya or 21st seed – and former winner – Victoria Azarenka in round four.

Navarro is a top-eight seed for the first time at a Slam, though the American’s form has wavered since her US Open run last summer.

She could face ninth seed Daria Kasatkina in the fourth round but 24th seed Yulia Putintseva, in solid form in recent months, is also a danger in this section.

Prediction: Swiatek def Putintseva