Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek: World No 1 set to increase rankings lead in Indian Wells
Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek have set themselves apart as the two best players on the WTA Tour in recent months.
So far, that has proven to be the case in Indian Wells, with both women impressing on their way into the second week in Tennis Paradise.
However, no matter what happens over the rest of the tournament, it is world No 1 Sabalenka who may prove to be the big winner from a WTA Rankings perspective.
Heading into Indian Wells
Sabalenka already held a sizeable advantage heading into Indian Wells, with over 1,000 points between her and world No 2 Swiatek.
As it stands, the Belarusian sits on 9,076 points, while Swiatek holds 7,985.
Former world No 1 Swiatek had closed the gap significantly at the Australian Open, though earlier-than-expected defeats in Doha and Dubai saw her once again lose ground.
Now, there is a distinct possibility that the Pole could find herself further behind the world No 1 when the rankings update next week.
Sabalenka defends Indian Wells tally
Twelve months ago, Sabalenka was a surprise early casualty in Tennis Paradise, falling to Emma Navarro in the fourth round.
Straight-sets wins over McCartney Kessler and Lucia Bronzetti mean that the top seed has already reached that stage in 2025 – meaning she has successfully defended her 120 points from 2024.
That means, at the very least, Sabalenka will have 9,076 points by next Monday, though things could get even better for the three-time Grand Slam champion.
A significant chance to strike
After a troublesome Middle East swing, Sabalenka looks back towards her best and now has the chance to increase her lead over Swiatek.
The world No 1 is a heavy favourite to beat lucky loser Sonay Kartal in the fourth round, and will then fancy her chances against sixth seed Jasmine Paolini or 24th seed Liudmilla Samsonova in the quarter-finals.
A run to the quarter-final would move Sabalenka to 9,171 points, while a run to the semi-final would place her on 9,346 points.
Hypothetically, things should get tougher for Sabalenka after that point, with a projected semi-final against third seed Coco Gauff – before a projected final against Swiatek.
But, a run to the final would place the Belarusian on 9,606, and she would hold a staggering 9,956 should she lift her first title in the desert.
From a rankings perspective, it is effectively nothing to lose, everything to gain for her at this stage of the event.
Swiatek under pressure
Sabalenka’s advantage is only increased by the fact that Swiatek is the defending Indian Wells champion and, therefore, has a staggering 1,000 points to defend.
The world No 2 cannot build on her current points total of 7,985, with her best case scenario being a successful title defence coupled with a fourth-round defeat for Sabalenka.
However, if Swiatek loses in round four and Sabalenka lifts the title, there would be over 2,800 points between the two.
The Pole would drop a staggering 880 ranking points and fall to a total of 7,105 if she is beaten by Karolina Muchova in Tuesday’s fourth-round clash.
Swiatek would fall to 7,200 points with a quarter-final exit, 7,375 with a semi-final exit, and 7,635 if she were beaten in the final.
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Battle to stay in touch
Indian Wells is a potentially crucial event for Swiatek in her mission to stay in touch with Sabalenka and ultimately regain the world No 1 ranking later in the season.
Once Indian Wells and the Miami Open are complete, the Pole faces a huge clay-court swing with three significant titles to defend.
After defending semi-final points in Stuttgart, Swiatek will have 1,000 points to defend in both Madrid and Rome after her respective victories in 2024, before 2,000 points after her fourth French Open triumph last spring.
Sabalenka herself has 650 finalist points to defend in both Madrid and Rome, but only has quarter-final points to defend in Stuttgart and Roland Garros.
Of course, the shoe will be on the other foot this summer, with Sabalenka defending a large chunk of points across the US hard-court swing.
However, Swiatek surely needs an Indian Wells title defence to hold any hopes of a return to No 1 in the coming months.
