ATP China Open predictions: Can anyone stop Jannik Sinner from lifting the title?

Oli Dickson Jefford 24 Sep 2025 3:45 PM

Pictured L-R: Jannik Sinner, Alexander Bublik, and Alexander Zverev.

ATP Tour players Jannik Sinner, Alexander Bublik, and Alexander Zverev.

The China Open always proves to be a fascinating event that helps kickstart the Asian swing on the ATP Tour, and once again several big names will be in action this week.

Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz is not in action, but last year’s runner-up Jannik Sinner does return, with fellow top-10 stars Alexander Zverev, Alex de Minaur, and Lorenzo Musetti joined by the likes of Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev in the field.

With men’s singles action at the ATP 500 event getting underway on Thursday, we make our predictions for what could unfold over the next week inside the Beijing National Tennis Center.

First Quarter

Projected Q/F: (1) Jannik Sinner vs (5) Karen Khachanov

Champion in 2023 and the finalist last year, Sinner returns to one of his most successful events looking to bounce back from his defeat to Alcaraz in the US Open final.

The Italian has an interesting sighter versus Marin Cilic in the opening round, though it is a test he should pass comfortably, with a second round clash against Terence Atmane or Zhang Zhizhen also more than winnable.

Perhaps Sinner’s first significant test will come against fifth seed Khachanov, though the Russian’s strong summer was rather dented by his second-round exit at the US Open.

The fifth seed faces an intriguing opener against the much-improved Alexandre Muller, which could be a key test of his credentials in Beijing.

Prediction: Sinner def Khachanov

Second Quarter

Projected Q/F: (3) Alex de Minaur vs (7) Jakub Mensik

2025 hasn’t felt like a vintage year for de Minaur, but the Australian still finds himself firmly in ATP Finals contention heading into the Asian swing, and will hope action in Beijing can boost his hopes of a top-eight finish.

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The Australian starts against home wildcard Bu Yunchaokete, a semi-finalist at the event last year — though short of form this season — before a potential tough round two versus David Goffin or Tomas Martin Etcheverry.

On paper, de Minaur is set for a quarter-final against seventh seed Mensik, whose momentum from his stunning Miami Open triumph has stalled in recent months.

Miomir Kecmanovic will provide an intriguing test for the seventh seed in round one, and Mensik could then face home favourite Jerry Shang in round two.

Prediction: De Minaur def Mensik

Third Quarter

Projected Q/F: (6) Andrey Rublev vs (4) Lorenzo Musetti

Musetti spurned two championship points in a heartbreaking Chengdu Open final defeat, though the Italian has little time to rest on his laurels.

Back in good form after a post-French Open injury slump, the fourth seed faces Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard — who he beat in the US Open first round — to start, but could then face Alexander Bublik in round two, the Kazakh having won four titles in the last three months.

The other seed in this section is sixth seed Rublev, who has been handed an incredibly tough draw against Flavio Cobolli, one of the most improved players of the 2025 season.

The winner of that could then face another tricky test in round two, against Francisco Cerundolo or Learner Tien.

Prediction: Bublik def Cobolli

Fourth Quarter

Projected Q/F: (8) Daniil Medvedev vs (2) Alexander Zverev

Two of the biggest rivals on the ATP Tour, could Medvedev and Zverev book a blockbuster quarter-final clash this coming week.

Runner-up to Sinner in 2023, Medvedev is desperately searching for form after a hugely disappointing year, and faces a tough pathway with Cameron Norrie — who he lost to at Roland Garros — and then potentially Alejandro Davidovich Fokina standing between him and a quarter-final place.

2025 has also not been a vintage year for Zverev, and an opening-round test against Lorenzo Sonego could prove tough for the world No 3.

The German could then face Tallon Griekspoor in round two, someone he has formed an unlikely rivalry with, on his way to the last eight.

Prediction: Zverev def Davidovich Fokina