ATP Rankings battle for No 1 spot: When could Carlos Alcaraz overtake Jannik Sinner at the top?
World No 1 Jannik Sinner increased his lead over second-placed Carlos Alcaraz in the ATP Rankings with his Wimbledon title, but the Italian will be under pressure to remain top during the upcoming North American swing.
Sinner has held the No 1 spot for the past 58 weeks as he became the first Italian to climb to the top of the rankings after the 2024 French Open.
The only time he was really in danger of losing his status was when he was banned from February until May, handing Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev an opportunity to overtake him, but they both fluffed their chances with poor displays during the Sunshine Double at the Indian Wells Open and Miami Open.
Alcaraz, though, managed to chip away at Sinner’s lead in recent months following an excellent clay-court season and his title run at the Queen’s Club Championships, but he was always going to face an uphill task at Wimbledon where he was the defending champion.
Sinner started the grass-court Grand Slam with a 1,130-point lead over his closest rival, and by winning the title, he has increased that advantage to a massive 3,430 points with the other challengers well adrift.
ATP Top 5 After Wimbledon
1. Jannik Sinner – 12,030
2. Carlos Alcaraz – 8,600
3. Alexander Zverev – 6,310
4. Taylor Fritz – 5,035
5. Jack Draper – 4,650
But all is not lost for Alcaraz as the tables will be turned during the North American swing as Sinner has a lot of points to defend in the coming months.
The Spaniard had a torrid hard-court campaign 12 months ago as he lost early at the Cincinnati Open and US Open while he didn’t compete at the Canadian Open due to the Paris Olympics.
The five-time Grand Slam winner has only 60 points to defend while Sinner will drop 3,200.
The Italian had a summer to remember as he won the titles at Cincinnati (1,000) and Flushing Meadows (2,000) while he also reached the quarter-finals at the ATP Masters 1000 event in Canada (200).
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That 3,430-point will thus evaporate pretty quickly, but Sinner will remain at No 1 until at least after the US Open even if Alcaraz wins the Masters events in Ohio and Toronto and it means he is guaranteed another eight weeks at No 1.
Alcaraz has spent a total of 36 weeks at the top of the rankings during four different spells, but he was last No 1 in September 2023 when Novak Djokovic brought an 11-week stint to an end.
The 22-year-old, though, is favourite to finish the season as No 1 as he currently has a 1,500-point lead over Sinner in the ATP Rankings Race To Turin with the standings usually a marker for the year-end top spot.
Sinner finished as the year-end No 1 in 2024 while Djokovic was No 1 in December 2023 with Alcaraz top in 2022.
