Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev: Battle for world No 2 at Italian Open

Oli Dickson Jefford 06 May 2025 6:04 PM

Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev.

The Italian Open men’s singles draw gets underway on Wednesday, with the ATP’s leading starts in action at the final big event before Roland Garros.

World No 1 Jannik Sinner’s controversial comeback is dominating headlines, but there is plenty at stake for world No 2 Alexander Zverev and world No 3 Carlos Alcaraz.

The pair are embroiled in a crucial rankings battle that could have significant consequences.

As it stands

Alcaraz briefly returned to world No 2 in April, following his Masters 1000 triumph in Monte Carlo.

However, defeat in the Barcelona Open final, coupled with Zverev’s Munich Open victory, saw the German regain the No 2 position after just one week.

Zverev had just a 35-point lead over Alcaraz heading into the Madrid Open and failed to build on his 8,085 ranking points in the Spanish capital, matching his fourth-round exit from 2024.

However, Alcaraz has slipped slightly further behind, dropping 200 points after failing to defend his Madrid quarter-final points from 2025 after his withdrawal due to injury.

But, there is very good news for the Spaniard, who holds 7,850 points in the official rankings.

He has no points to defend at the Italian Open this week, meaning he will move up in terms of points regardless of how deep he goes into the draw.

In contrast, Zverev has 1,000 points to defend as the reigning Rome champion.

Both men are already projected to earn 10 points in Rome, having received an opening-round bye in the Eternal City.

However, while Alcaraz remains at 7,850 points in the ATP Live Rankings, Zverev is currently dropping from 8,085 to 7,095, with 990 points falling off his ranking.

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How Alcaraz can capture crucial No 2 ranking

With Sinner safely set to stay as the world No 1, the No 2 battle between Alcaraz and Zverev has huge implications for the French Open.

Whoever is the world No 2 once action in Rome is complete will be the second seed at Roland Garros, and therefore avoid facing Sinner until at least the final.

However, the world No 3 would have to face either Sinner or the world No 2 in the last four.

For Alcaraz, his task in Rome is rather simple: reach the semi-final, and he is guaranteed to replace Zverev as the world No 2 once the tournament is over.

The Spaniard would earn 400 ranking points and hold 8,240 points should he reach the last four, with Zverev only able to hold a maximum of 8,085 – his current tally – once the event has concluded.

Alcaraz would move to 8,840 if he won the title, and 8,490 if he finishes as the runner-up, potentially extending his lead further.

The door opens slightly for Zverev if Alcaraz loses before the semi-final, though life would still be difficult.

If Alcaraz loses in the last eight, he will hold 8,050 points, meaning Zverev would stay as the world No 2 with 8,085 points if he successfully defends his title.

However, Zverev has to defend his title to have any chance at all of remaining as the world No 2.

Defeat in the final would leave him on 7,735 points, less than Alcaraz’s live tally of points ahead of his first match.