Why Carlos Alcaraz may still be an ATP Finals winner despite Jannik Sinner defeat

The first question in Carlos Alcaraz’s press conference following his ATP Finals defeat against Jannik Sinner summed up the mood of optimism around the player who will finish this year as the world No 1.

Sinner may have prevailed in a final played out in front of a passionate Italian crowd in Turin, with his 7-6(4), 7-5 victory extending his winning run to 31 matches on indoor courts.

Yet while Sinner was the player lifting the trophy at the end of the contest, Alcaraz must have taken a lot of encouragement from a contest that was closer than some had predicted.

Despite Alcaraz’s incredible performance against Felix Auger-Aliassime in the semi-finals in Turin, Sinner was a big favourite against his chief rival playing in conditions that are all in his favour.

So for Alcaraz to push him all the way and clearly take the Italian out of his comfort zone was a statement from the 22-year-old who beat Sinner in convincing fashion when they met in the US Open final in September.

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As was the case in that New York match-up, Sinner’s first serve percentage collapsed for much of the first against Alcaraz, with the final percentage down at a disappointing number of 55.

Sinner also admitted he was ‘very nervous’ playing against Alcaraz, with his mindset clearly shifting when he takes on the one player who takes him out of his comfort zone and forced him to go for more than he does against any other opponent.

Alcaraz has now won 10 of his 16 meetings against Sinner and while there is no doubt this match is now a 50-50 contest every time they meet, this battle in Turin was a lot closer than the one-side clash the pair played out in the Six Kings Slam exhibition event in Saudi Arabia last month.

So it was no surprise that Alcaraz was asked whether he was encouraged by his display against Sinner in Turin when he met the media after the match.

“I thought at the beginning of the match that I could beat him, that I could compete against him here,” said Alcaraz.

“It didn’t surprise [me] at all that I was really close. It was just about the tennis. I’m just really happy with the performance that I did today. I’m pretty sure that it’s going to keep growing, my level on indoor courts.

“I felt the improvements of Jannik. I said many times, I think a player like him, he always comes back stronger from the losses. He always learn from the losses. Once again, he has shown everybody that he did it. Especially in the serves, putting so much pressure on you. It’s really difficult to play against him.”

The mind games in a battle between two sporting greats is always crucial and the takeaway from this latest meeting between Alcaraz and Sinner could be that the loser has a mindset that troubles the ultimate victor.

Alcaraz fully believes he has the firepower to beat Sinner and no one else in tennis goes into a match against the world No 2 with that confidence right now, which is why the Italian plays a different brand of tennis against his biggest foe.

In a break from his normal routine, Sinner was running back to his chair at change of ends as he tried to send a message to Alcaraz and he looked concerned as he spoke to his coaching box at times.

He made more mistakes against Alcaraz than would be the norm and if he didn’t get a huge slice of luck to break back the Spaniard after a double hit on his frame mid-way through the second set, this match may have been destined to go all the way to a third set.

“I didn’t change the plan because of the injury. I changed it because I felt that I had to do something else,” Alcaraz said his tactical approach. “I’m trying to be as aggressive as I can on court every match, but especially I think even more against Jannik. Every time that I can, just trying to go forward.

“It worked because I was a break up. I was serving well. That game, I think at 3-2. I was up in the game. I made a few mistakes that I didn’t have to make. In general, I think it was a great plan that I did today.

“That’s why I’m really happy with the level and the performance that I did today, because I think I did not do too many things wrong, which is great.”

Losing to a great champion like Sinner in his favourite conditions should not concern Alcaraz as their biggest battles in 2026 are likely to be played out on courts that are more favourable to what he wants to do.

He should also be encouraged to by the body language and demeanour of Sinner as he struggled to deal with the pressure of facing the one player he knows he can’t beat when he is at his best.

It may be advantage to Sinner for now after their latest showdown, but Alcaraz will already be eyeing up a very different result when they next meet.