Iga Swiatek facing her biggest crisis and Carlos Alcaraz’s injury nightmare – Tennis365’s Heroes and Villains

Kevin Palmer
Holger Rune, Iga Swiatek, Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz
Holger Rune, Iga Swiatek, Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz

Iga Swiatek is facing up to one of the biggest months of her career with her confidence shaken by a defeat that will have shaken her more than most.

We may never have had a scenario that has seen a player at the top of the tennis rankings boasting a record to compare to Swiatek’s against Jelena Ostapenko, who now clearly has a mental stranglehold over the world No 2.

Ostapenko has beaten Swiatek in each of their six meetings and witnessing their latest meeting highlights how much the psychological balance rests with the lower ranked player.

While Ostapenko’s clay court prowess cannot be doubted after her French Open win in 2017, he was a player ranked well outside of the top 20 when she took to the court against four-time Roland Garros winner Swiatek and yet there was no doubt where the balance of power lay.

Swiatek looked nervous from the off, threw in double faults and uncharacteristic mistakes and looked uneasy as Ostapenko’s brand of power-packed tennis overwhelmed Swiatek again.

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The Pole fell 4-0 behind quickly and while she deserved credit for bouncing back to win the second set, Ostapenko ran away with the third to seal a 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 win.

It wasn’t just the defeat that left a mark on Swiatek, but the image of a champion who was vulnerable and not just to the one player she can’t beat.

While the Ostapenko blueprint to beat Swiatek is a brand of all-out attacking tennis that pushes the five-time Grand Slam champion onto her heels is tough to execute, it’s safe to assume every player Swiatek plays from this point forward to try to adopt that plan.

She has a massive 4,000 ranking points to defend over the next few weeks from her wins at last year’s Madrid Open, Rome Open and French Open, with flawless tennis needed to repeat her heroics of 2024.

The Swiatek we saw getting battered by Ostapenko once again is not the dominant champion of a year ago.

And if other players take inspiration from the Latvian’s ability to dilute Swiatek’s eagerness to dominate her opponents, she will have a big problem maintaining her place at the top of the WTA Rankings.

SECOND COMING OF RUNE

When Holger Rune secured his breakthrough win at the 2022 Paris Masters, he was quickly elevated to superstar status.

With dashing looks and a game style that was equally eye-catching, Rune’s win against Djokovic in that Paris final three-and-half years ago quickly faded in the memory as this young Dune went through as many coaches as he did unsettling defeats. 

A poor run of form at the back end of 2023 did not improve as he finished last year with a 45-23 record that did not feature any ATP Tour finals after a loss against Grigor Dimitrov in Brisbane in January 2024.

His run to the Indian Wells final suggested a Rune revival was underway and he backed that up with an impressive win against Carlos Alcaraz in the Barcelona final win Sunday.

Rune now has to be considered to be a contender for every big title in the clay court season, with the smile back on Rune’s face and his confidence rising rapidly.

CARLOS CONCERN

Carlos Alcaraz lost the world No 2 ranking after his defeat in the Barcelona final, but the bigger concern must be his fitness levels.

Alcaraz was hampered by an injury problem during the second set of his defeat against Holger Rune and and while he will be tempted to play in his ‘home’ Masters 1000 tournament in Madrid, taking a break from competitive action may be a shrewd plan ahead of his Roland Garros title defence next month.

Alcaraz has played a lot of tennis over the last two weeks after also winning the Monte Carlo Masters, so making a sensible rather than an emotional decision has to be a priority when he decides if he will play at the Madrid Masters.

ZVEREV FINDS HIS MOJO

Alexander Zverev’s slide in fortunes has been one of the big stories on the ATP Tour this year, so his win at the ATP 500 tournament in Munich may have been a big moment in this tennis season.

Zverev could have slipped out of the top four in the rankings if he continued his slump in form, yet the joy he displayed as he beat Ben Shelton in the Munich said all we needed to know about how badly he needed that boost.

Zverev will face big tests when he plays at the Madrid Open and defends his Rome Masters title next month, but he seems to have found his mojo just when he needed it most.

ONE TO WATCH – Diego Dedura-Palomero

Aged just 17, Diego Dedura-Palomero made his mark in the Munich clay court event as he made it through to the last 16 and secured an ATP Rankings rise of 173 places to take him up to No 376.

As always with a junior player, patience may be needed before we appreciate the full potential of this feisty young performer, but the early signs are promising for a player who achieved an ITF career-high junior ranking of No 27 earlier this year.

STAT OF THE WEEK

Carlos Alcaraz’s defeat against Holger Rune snapped a 14-match winning run for the Spaniard in the Barcelona tournament stretching back to 2021.

READ NEXT: Carlos Alcaraz set for crucial medical test that could end Madrid Open hopes

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