Why Carlos Alcaraz’s Masters 1000 form leaves him in rankings limbo

Oli Dickson Jefford 01 Nov 2024 12:00 PM

ATP Tour star Carlos Alcaraz, with Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev.

Carlos Alcaraz’s Paris Masters campaign ended earlier than expected on Thursday, the Spaniard suffering a shock 6-1, 3-6, 7-5 defeat to French No 1 Ugo Humbert.

Having won both their previous meetings – at Wimbledon and in the Davis Cup – there is no doubt the world No 2 was expected to win this encounter.

And in the absence of both world No 1 Jannik Sinner and defending champion Novak Djokovic, he was a warm favourite to lift the title.

Alcaraz made his displeasure with the Paris Masters courts clear after his early exit, but is there a bigger issue at play for the four-time Grand Slam champion?

Across 2024, his Masters 1000 form suggests that could well be the case.

Masters struggles

When Alcaraz has been in form this year he has been close to unplayable, highlighted by his runs to four titles: Indian Wells, Roland Garros, Wimbledon, and the China Open.

The Spaniard is now a four-time Grand Slam champion and his Indian Wells victory was a fifth Masters 1000 title of his career, highlighting how well he can perform at the biggest events in tennis.

However, there can be no denying that compared to Sinner, or even rankings rival Alexander Zverev, his overall consistency at Masters events needs to improve.

Following his triumph at Indian Wells – the first Masters 1000 tournament of the season – he failed to make the semi-final of the following eight Masters events in 2024.

Admittedly, he missed both Monte Carlo and Rome due to injury and skipped the Canadian Open due to the quick turnaround from the Olympics.

However, he only managed quarter-final showings in Miami, Madrid, and Shanghai, while he lost in round two in Cincinnati back in August – before his early Paris exit.

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Sinner, Zverev ahead

Alcaraz holds a 16-5 record at Masters 1000 events this year which, on paper, is far from disastrous.

However, his 16 wins pale in comparison to Sinner, his rival for the world No 1 ranking, and Zverev – who could well usurp him as the world No 2 by the end of 2024.

World No 1 Sinner was forced to withdraw from the Paris Masters and the Italian Open in 2024, though triumphed in Miami, Cincinnati, and Shanghai.

The Italian holds an impressive 28-3 record at Masters events this year and reached at least the quarter-final of the Masters 1000 tournaments he played in.

Alcaraz matches Sinner with two Slam titles in 2024 and has won all three of their encounters this season, but his rival’s superior consistency is why he has a 4,120-point cushion as the world No 1.

And, though he has arguably had a much better season than Zverev, the German’s overall consistency has kept him in touch with the world No 2.

Zverev’s Italian Open victory remains his only title of 2024 but the 27-year-old has reached two further semi-finals and two further quarter-finals at Masters level.

That is not factoring in Paris, where he faces Stefanos Tsitsipas in the last eight on Friday.

Zverev is the highest-ranked player left in the draw, and he will knock Alcaraz down to No 3 should he reach the final.

Alcaraz will almost certainly return to No 1 at some point in his career – but work needs to be done at Masters level to get him back challenging for the top spot.