Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz to defend his crown? – our Wimbledon men’s predictions
The 2025 Wimbledon Championships get underway on Monday, but which man will lift the historic trophy at the All England Club?
Here, we make our Wimbledon men’s singles predictions.
First quarter
Projected QF: (1) Jannik Sinner vs (7) Lorenzo Musetti
Jannik Sinner was upset by the red-hot Alexander Bublik in the second round of the Halle Open, but that defeat has not dented his status as an extremely strong contender at Wimbledon.
The world No 1 should have little trouble progressing to the last 16, where he would likely meet either Tommy Paul or Grigor Dimitrov — both of whom have been dealing with injuries.
Lorenzo Musetti was a Wimbledon semi-finalist last year, although he has not played since retiring with an injury in the last four of the 2025 French Open.
The seventh seed also faces a tricky path featuring a projected third round meeting with Brandon Nakashima and a fourth round clash with Ben Shelton or Ugo Humbert.
If fully healthy, the much-improved Musetti’s skillset and comfort on the natural surfaces would make him a favourite to set up an all-Italian quarter-final.
However, given Musetti’s fitness concerns, Shelton’s tendency to play his best tennis at majors could help him take advantage.
Sinner, though, will surely be too strong for anyone in this section as he chases a maiden Wimbledon crown.
Quarter-final prediction: Sinner d. Shelton
Second quarter
Projected QF: (4) Jack Draper vs (6) Novak Djokovic
As Great Britain’s first elite player since a prime Andy Murray, Jack Draper will carry the weight of his home nation’s expectations at Wimbledon — and he could not have been handed a more brutal draw.
The world No 4 will likely have to navigate a second round clash with former Wimbledon finalist Marin Cilic, while a third round blockbuster with Halle winner Alexander Bublik — who stunned him at the French Open — looms large.
Draper could then meet the dangerous 15th seed Jakub Mensik in the last 16, before a quarter-final showdown with seven-time champion Novak Djokovic.
While Draper is yet to advance beyond the second round at Wimbledon, Djokovic has reached six straight finals.
The legendary Serb starts his campaign against Alexandre Muller and could be tested against Alex Michelsen in the third round and Alex de Minaur in the fourth round.
The 38-year-old, who impressed with his level at the French Open, will be hard to stop in this quarter as he approaches now or never territory in his quest to win a 25th major.
Quarter-final prediction: Djokovic d. Draper
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Third quarter
Projected QF: (5) Taylor Fritz vs (3) Alexander Zverev
Taylor Fritz won ATP 250 titles in Stuttgart and Eastbourne to take his grass-court title tally to five, while he was upset in the first round at Queen’s Club.
The American will need to overcome the huge-serving Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the first round, while in-form Gabriel Diallo may pose an even bigger challenge in his second match.
Fritz could then play the talented Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the third round before a possible last 16 encounter with ninth seed Daniil Medvedev — a Wimbledon finalist in 2023 and 2024.
Third seed Alexander Zverev has never made the quarter-finals at Wimbledon and could run into a problem in the form of Matteo Berrettini — a Wimbledon runner-up and serious grass-court force — in round three.
If Fritz can survive the early tests, this is a good opportunity for him to go one better than his two previous Wimbledon quarter-finals.
Quarter-final prediction: Fritz d. Zverev
Fourth quarter
Projected QF: (2) Carlos Alcaraz vs (8) Holger Rune
Carlos Alcaraz is the two-time reigning Wimbledon champion and arrives on an 18-match winning streak.
The 22-year-old Spaniard’s favourable draw only strengthens his position as the clear favourite as it is hard to see him being threatened by anyone in his quarter.
Holger Rune is the No 8 seed but continues to be plagued by inconsistency, while 23rd seed Jiri Lehecka has proven he has the game to capitalise.
Lehecka made the last 16 in his last Wimbledon appearance in 2023 and showcased his grass-court credentials again with his recent run to the Queen’s Club final. A potential third round match between Lehecka and 12th seed Frances Tiafoe could prove pivotal.
Quarter-final prediction: Alcaraz d. Lehecka
Semi-final Predictions
Djokovic has beaten Sinner twice at Wimbledon (2022 and 2023) and a rematch of their highly-competitive three-set French Open semi-final would be fascinating. The Italian’s four straight wins over Djokovic, though, illustrate how difficult this matchup has become for the Serb.
Sinner d. Djokovic in 5 sets
Alcaraz is 2-0 against Fritz and would be an overwhelming favourite in this matchup.
Alcaraz d. Fritz in 3 sets
Final Prediction
Given Alcaraz will not have to get through Djokovic or Draper en route to the final, his path looks far clearer than Sinner’s, which could be a factor in the final.
Most significantly, Alcaraz is in incredible form, his record on grass is remarkable and he has earned five successive victories against his biggest rival. He is also 5-0 in Grand Slam finals.
Alcaraz d. Sinner in 5 sets
