Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner: Who is in pole position to seal year-end No 1 ranking?
Jannik Sinner has won back-to-back titles on the ATP Tour — and is back as the world No 1 as a result.
After triumphing in Vienna last weekend, Sinner sealed his fifth ATP title of 2025 by beating Felix Auger-Aliassime at the Paris Masters, and returned to the top of the ranking for the first time since the US Open.
The Italian’s chances of sealing consecutive year-end world No 1 finishes have now improved, though Carlos Alcaraz is still ahead heading into the ATP Finals; here, we look at how the battle between the two is shaping up.
As it stands
Sinner’s run to the fifth Masters 1000 title of his career in Paris, coupled with Alcaraz’s shock second-round defeat, sees the Italian return to world No 1 on Monday.
He currently holds 11,500 points in the ATP Rankings, while Alcaraz trails on 11,250 points.
However, while he has been dislodged as the world No 1, Alcaraz still has a notable lead in the ATP Race to Turin, which only monitors points won in 2025.
The Spaniard has earned 11,050 points this season, with Sinner on exactly 10,000 points after his run to the title in Paris.
While the gap has closed significantly over the past week, Alcaraz’s lead is still significant, and means he is in pole position to claim the year-end No 1 ranking.
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What does Alcaraz need in Turin?
When last year’s ATP Finals points are removed ahead of this year’s event, Alcaraz will replace Sinner as the world No 1 once again.
Sinner secured a full 1,500 ranking points for an unbeaten run to the title in 2024, meaning he will drop back to 10,000 points ahead of the event, while Alcaraz will drop just 200 points after winning just one group stage match twelve months ago.
That will put Alcaraz on 11,050 points as the world No 1, and within striking distance of a first year-end No 1 finish since 2022.
An unbeaten run to the title would put Sinner back on 11,500 points after Turin, 450 points ahead of Alcaraz’s pre-Turin total.
That means that the Spaniard needs just 451 points to seal the year-end No 1 ranking, something that is more than doable for him.
Every round-robin match in Turin is worth 200 ranking points, meaning that an unbeaten group stage would earn Alcaraz a full 600 points — enough to seal top spot at the end of 2025, regardless of how he and Sinner then fare.
If Alcaraz were to earn 400 points for a 2-1 record in the round-robin stage, he would need to hope he progresses and then win his semi-final, which would earn him a further 400 points.
Should Alcaraz win only one group stage match, he could still capture the year-end No 1 ranking if he were to progress and then pick up a win in the semi-final.
What does Sinner need in Turin?
Ideally, Sinner needs to once again win the title without losing a match to have a realistic chance of finishing 2025 as the year-end No 1.
If the Italian were to win the title with a full complement of 1,500 points, he would seal the year-end No 1 spot if Alcaraz were to win only two group stage matches and not progress, or win two group stage matches and then lose in the semi-final.
Should Sinner win the title after a 2-1 group record, earning 1,300 points, he would need Alcaraz to win just one group stage match and not progress, or win one group stage match and lose his semi-final.
If the Italian were to lose two group stage matches and win the title, earning 1,100 points, the Spaniard would ultimately only need one round-robin win to seal year-end No 1.
Sinner must win the title to have any hope of sealing the year-end No 1 result; any other circumstance would guarantee Alcaraz top spot.
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