Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek, Barbora Krejcikova: WTA Finals qualification scenarios

Oli Dickson Jefford 06 Nov 2024 5:53 PM

Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek, and Barbora Krejcikova.

Action in the Purple Group at the WTA Finals is complete, with Aryna Sabalenka and Zheng Qinwen progressing to the last four.

World No 1 and top seed Sabalenka progresses as the group winner, while seventh Qinwen thrashed Jasmine Paolini in a qualification shootout on Wednesday to ensure her semi-final spot.

However, with the Orange Group yet to finish, neither woman knows who they will face in the last four.

And, with things finely balanced in that group, various scenarios could pan out.

As it stands

The Orange Group consisted of second seed and defending champion Iga Swiatek, third seed Coco Gauff, sixth seed Jessica Pegula, and eighth seed Barbora Krejcikova.

The first thing we know is that Gauff is already guaranteed a place in the last four, thanks to straight-set victories over Pegula and Gauff – though she is not ensured of finishing first.

Meanwhile, Pegula was already out of the tournament after straight-set defeats to Gauff and Krejcikova but has now withdrawn from the event.

That means that alternate Daria Kasatkina will step in and face Swiatek, while Gauff and Krejcikova meet.

Both Swiatek and Krejcikova have a 1-1 record heading into the final round of matches, with the Pole winning their match in three sets – putting her in second place at the moment.

The Orange Group as it stands following two rounds of matches. Jessica Pegula has now withdrawn.

What Gauff needs

Gauff will face Sabalenka if she finishes second in the group, and Qinwen if she tops the group.

The equation is simple for her: beat Krejcikova, and she is guaranteed to finish in first place.

However, the world No 3 can also top the group if she loses to the Czech in three sets and Swiatek beats Kasatkina, though would be in second should she lose in straight sets and Swiatek wins.

What Swiatek needs

Due to her 6-3, 6-4 loss to Gauff, Swiatek can’t win the Orange Group, though she can still progress in second place.

However, the defending champion needs a little help from the American; not only must the Pole beat Kasatkina, but she must also hope Gauff defeats Krejcikova.

Should Krejcikova prevail, the five-time Grand Slam champion would be unable to match both the Czech and American in sets won – no matter her result against Kasatkina.

If she does progress, she is guaranteed to face Sabalenka in the last four for a third straight year.

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What Krejcikova needs

The situation for Krejcikova, who qualified for the WTA Finals thanks to her SW19 victory, is a little clearer than it is for Swiatek.

Any win puts the former world No 2 through to the semi-finals, regardless of how Swiatek fares.

However, if she defeats Gauff in straight sets and Swiatek beats Kasatkina, she would top the group and face Qinwen in the last four.

Krejcikova can also win the group if she wins in three sets and Kasatkina beats Swiatek, as the tiebreaker would then be the head-to-head between her and Gauff.