Gauff, Swiatek, or Sabalenka: Who has the toughest Indian Wells draw?

Oli Dickson Jefford 04 Mar 2025 2:49 PM

L-R: Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff

Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, and Coco Gauff

The Indian Wells draw is out, and while there is a sense that the women’s singles title is up for grabs, there is no doubt that most attention is being focused on the WTA’s top three stars.

Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, and Coco Gauff all have their respective points to prove at the WTA 1000 event, but how will all three women fare?

We analyse the potential pathways for the three Grand Slam winners and look at who may – or may not – have been dealt a kinder hand by the draw gods.

1) Aryna Sabalenka – Projected Pathway

R2: McCartney Kessler
R3: (30) Magdalena Frech
R4: (16) Beatriz Haddad Maia
QF: (6) Jasmine Paolini
SF: (3) Coco Gauff
F: (2) Iga Swiatek

Sabalenka had a disappointing Middle East swing, but is a former finalist in Indian Wells – and arguably has a solid draw here.

Potential round two opponent Kessler did beat Gauff in Dubai but is a player the world No 1 should be capable of beating, as is 30th seed Frech in round three.

16th seed Haddad Maia – or 20th seed Ekaterina Alexandrova – could prove to be more of an obstacle in the fourth round, though on paper, this should be a smooth pathway to the last eight for the Belarusian.

With projected quarter-final opponent Paolini having struggled so far in 2025, Sabalenka has perhaps been favoured slightly by the draw gods when it comes to her early matches.

2) Iga Swiatek – Projected Pathway

R2: Caroline Garcia
R3: (32) Ons Jabeur
R4: (15) Karolina Muchova
QF: (8) Zheng Qinwen
SF: (4) Jessica Pegula
F: (1) Aryna Sabalenka

Swiatek’s season to date has not been as disastrous as some have made out, and the defending Indian Wells champion faces a draw against potential opponents who are in a similar – or the same – boat.

Likely round two opponent Garcia has been struggling for several months now, and 32nd seed Jabeur is still on the comeback trail after an injury-stricken 2024; Swiatek leads their head-to-head 5-2.

15th seed Muchova is likely to be the first significant test that the Pole faces, though the five-time major champion has won their past three meetings.

After that, she is projected to face eighth seed Qinwen – who is currently outside the top 100 of the WTA Race – before a semi-final against fourth seed Pegula, whose form has been up and down recently.

This feels like a decent, if slightly challenging, draw for Swiatek, and one that could help her to rediscover some of her best form.

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3) Coco Gauff – Projected Pathway

R2: Emma Raducanu
R3: (29) Maria Sakkari
R4: (13) Diana Shnaider
QF: (5) Madison Keys
SF: (1) Aryna Sabalenka
F: (2) Iga Swiatek

A 0-2 record in the Middle East seemingly set back Gauff’s trajectory every so slightly after a big end to 2025, and she’ll need to discover some of her best form early here.

Though neither are at their best right now, early potential matches against Raducanu and 29th seed Sakarri – who beat Gauff here 12 months ago – will be significant sighters for the American.

After that, things certainly get tricky for the world No 3, who could face 13th seed Shnaider in the fourth round.

However, she could also come up against 17th seed and Doha champion Amanda Anisimova, who has reached two WTA 1000 finals over the past seven months.

Should she progress to the last eight, it could be fifth seed Keys – or 10th seed Emma Navarro, who beat her at Wimbledon and the US Open last summer – who awaits.

Assessment

None of the WTA’s top three players exactly have an easy draw in Indian Wells, though arguably Gauff has been handed the toughest pathway.

Being drawn in a section with the likes of Keys, Navarro, and Anisimova – who have all won significant titles this season – is far from ideal for a player looking to recapture her best form.

With early matches against the likes of Raducanu, and then Sakkari or the much-improved Olga Danilovic in round three, Gauff faces an uphill task to win the Indian Wells title for the first time.