How Carlos Alcaraz can overtake Novak Djokovic in the ATP Rankings before the US Open

Ewan West
Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic laughing
Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic after the 2023 Cincinnati final

Novak Djokovic’s withdrawal from the Cincinnati Masters has presented Carlos Alcaraz with an ATP Rankings opportunity ahead of the US Open. 

Djokovic and Alcaraz both pulled out of the Canadian Open in Montreal, which got underway just two days after the pair’s gold medal match at the 2024 Paris Olympics.

In a thrilling final on Court Philippe-Chatrier, Djokovic overcame Alcaraz 7-6(3), 7-6(2) to win his first Olympic gold medal in his fifth appearance at the Games.

The 37-year-old Serbian will also skip the ATP Masters 1000 tournament in Cincinnati to give himself more time to recover as he continues to enjoy his incredible gold medal achievement. As a result, Djokovic will not play again until the US Open, which begins on August 26.

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Alcaraz is set to return to action in Cincinnati, which will be held from August 13-19, and he will have the chance to capitalise on Djokovic’s absence by leapfrogging him in the ATP Rankings.

Djokovic and Alcaraz currently occupy second and third position in the rankings respectively after world No 1 Jannik Sinner.

The pair contested an outstanding three-set final in Cincinnati last year, with Djokovic prevailing in a final set tiebreak.

Djokovic, will, therefore drop all 1000 points he earned for his 2023 title after this year’s edition of Cincinnati, which will take his points total from 8,460 to 7,460.

Alcaraz will lose 180 points after the ongoing Canadian Open, having reached the quarter-finals in Toronto a year ago. This means the Spaniard will have 7,950 points heading into Cincinnati, where he will defend 600 points for his 2023 runner-up result.

The 21-year-old can surpass Djokovic’s points tally after Cincinnati if he reaches the quarter-finals of the Masters 1000 event, as this will earn him 200 points — taking his total to 7,550.

Securing the world No 2 position when the ATP Rankings update after Cincinnati would make Alcaraz the second seed for the 2024 US Open, while Djokovic would be seeded third.

Being the No 2 seed instead of the No 3 seed at Grand Slams is a potential advantage as the top two seeds cannot meet until the final. The second seed at the US Open would avoid No 1 seed Jannik Sinner until the championship match.

Alcaraz and Djokovic could still play each other in the semi-finals, though, as the No 3 seed can land in either half of the draw.

World No 4 Alexander Zverev also has a chance to climb to third or even second spot before the US Open if he has significant success in Canada and Cincinnati.

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