How Jasmine Paolini prevailed in battle for Wimbledon top 4 seeding at Berlin Open

Oli Dickson Jefford 17 Jun 2025 4:31 PM

Jasmine Paolini celebrates after her match

Jasmine Paolini of Italy gestures during an on-court interview.

Action at the Berlin Tennis Open has attracted some of the biggest names in the women’s game, in a tournament that looked set to have huge implications for Wimbledon.

At arguably the biggest WTA grass-court event held before SW19, Jasmine Paolini, Zheng Qinwen, Madison Keys, and Mirra Andreeva were embroiled in a key rankings battle.

But, just two days into the tournament, that battle is over – with Paolini proving to be the victor.

Heading into Berlin

The vast majority of the WTA’s leading stars are in action in Berlin this week, including world No 1 Aryna Sabalenka, world No 2 Coco Gauff, and world No 3 Jessica Pegula.

None of those three is at risk of a rankings drop this week, meaning their seedings are already secured ahead of the third Grand Slam tournament of the year.

However, it was a different story for the women directly below them.

As of Monday’s (June 16) WTA Rankings update, just 217 points separate world No 4 Qinwen and world No 7 Andreeva.

Sitting at a new career-high of fourth, Qinwen holds 4,853 points, with world No 5 Paolini on 4,805 points, No 6 Keys on 4,669 points, and No 7 Andreeva on 4,636 points.

With 500 ranking points up for grabs at the WTA 500 event, and with Qinwen being the only player defending any points (50) at the tournament, the opportunity to seal the world No 4 ranking was there for the taking.

Paolini’s boost

With Qinwen dropping 50 points, Paolini was provisionally up to world No 4 in the WTA Live Rankings ahead of action in the German capital.

The Italian’s margin was minute, with 4,806 points to her name compared to 4,803 for her Chinese rival.

However, Qinwen’s chance to retain her world No 4 ranking this week is over, with the 22-year-old withdrawing from her opening-round clash versus Elena Rybakina.

That means that Paolini, before even playing her first match at the tournament, was guaranteed to overtake the Chinese in the rankings.

However, her ranking hopes have been further boosted by early exits for both Keys and Andreeva, her other rivals for the world No 4 position.

Sixth seed Andreeva rather fell away in her opening-round match on Monday night, losing 2-6, 7-5, 6-0 to Magdalena Frech.

There was also disappointment for seventh seed Keys on Tuesday afternoon, the American edged out 7-5, 7-6(6) in a tight battle against former Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova.

All that means that the rankings battle between the four is already over, with Paolini set to be the fourth seed at Wimbledon, barring any withdrawals.

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Why is being the fourth seed so important?

Paolini has 1,300 ranking points to defend at Wimbledon after reaching the final last year, and being the fourth seed means that she is better positioned to match those points – and potentially win her first Grand Slam singles title.

The top four seeds at any tournament are guaranteed not to face until at least the semi-final, meaning the Italian cannot clash with Sabalenka, Gauff, or Pegula until the last four.

As the fourth seed, she will be with either Sabalenka in the top half or Gauff in the bottom half, with Pegula in the opposite half to her.

Had she been the fifth seed, she could have potentially drawn one of Sabalenka, Gauff, or Pegula in the quarter-final.

That fate now awaits Qinwen, Keys, Andreeva, and world No 8 Iga Swiatek.