Jannik Sinner & Alexander Zverev ahead of Carlos Alcaraz – our ATP Finals Power Rankings
The ATP Finals field is set, with eight of the best men’s players in the world preparing for the year-end championships in Turin.
Defending champion Novak Djokovic has withdrawn and will not attempt to win a record-extending eighth ATP Finals title, but the rest of the game’s biggest names will compete.
With the tournament getting underway at the end of the week, we’re beginning to think about who enters as a leading contender, and who may have lower expectations.
Ranked from most to least likely to win the title, here are our ATP Finals Power Rankings.
8) Casper Ruud
Ruud’s start to the season was the best of his career, with the Norwegian having won more ATP matches than anyone else at one stage.
The former world No 2 reached finals in Los Cabos, Acapulco, and Monte Carlo before triumphing in Barcelona and Geneva – and then making the last four at Roland Garros.
However, Ruud’s form has nosedived since then, and he has failed to make a semi-final since his run at the French Open.
Back for a third ATP Finals, he made the final in his last appearance in 2022 – though it is difficult to see him making much impact.
7) Andrey Rublev
Few players have had a season as wild as Rublev, who has verged from the sublime to the ridiculous across a tumultuous campaign.
He won a second Masters 1000 title in Madrid – undoubtedly the highlight of his season – and was also the runner-up in Canada, alongside winning the ATP 250 event in Hong Kong.
But he reached just one Grand Slam quarter-final, struggling to find consistent form in a year that saw him make headlines more for his on-court outbursts rather than significant victories.
Rublev only sealed qualification through Novak Djokovic’s withdrawal – and will need a sharp uptick in form to contend.
6) Alex de Minaur
Few deserved to qualify as much as de Minaur, who looked nailed on to seal his spot in the year-end championships before an injury sustained at Wimbledon almost derailed his hopes.
The Australian has struggled to put consistent results together since then but still reached the last eight of the US Open, after similar results at SW19 and Roland Garros – and a round of 16 showing in Melbourne.
A run to the final in Rotterdam back in February followed by ATP Tour triumphs in Acapulco and ‘s-Hertogenbosch only cement his 2024 credentials, and he’ll make his tournament debut in Turin.
It is difficult to see him taking the title, but a run to the Paris Masters quarter-finals – and his Rotterdam run – show his indoor prowess.
5) Daniil Medvedev
What can we truly make of Medvedev’s season?
The Russian is the world No 4, was the fourth player to qualify for the ATP Finals, and reached the Australian Open final and Wimbledon semi-final across the opening months of the season.
However, the world No 1 has not reached a final since Indian Wells, has not won a title all season, and was the first to admit after his Paris Masters loss he was not approaching Turin with confidence.
A great indoor player at his peak and a former champion, you can’t rule him out – but his chances don’t seem as great as they have been in previous years.
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4) Taylor Fritz
Fritz is below Medvedev in the official ATP Rankings, but the American arguably approaches the Finals in a richer vein of form than the former world No 1.
The world No 6’s season is highlighted by his run to the US Open final, though he was also a quarter-finalist at Wimbledon and Australian Open, and reached the second week at Roland Garros.
Outside of the US Open, he was the champion in Delray Beach and Eastbourne and reached a further final in Munich – finding success on hard, grass, and clay courts in 2024.
Fritz is a little way off the contenders at the very top, but his big serve could do some damage indoors after a career-best season.
3) Carlos Alcaraz
The highs of Alcaraz’s 2024 have been extraordinary, highlighted by his French Open and Wimbledon victories this summer – becoming just the sixth man to complete the ‘Channel Slam.’
Outside of those victories, he also claimed a fifth Masters 1000 title in Indian Wells, before beating Jannik Sinner in a match-of-the-year contender in the China Open final.
Consistency has proven an issue at times though, and there is no denying that indoor courts have been a difficult test for him so far in his career.
Alcaraz is undoubtedly a huge title contender in Turin and should at the very least make the last four, but will need to find a new level to win the ATP Finals for the first time.
2) Alexander Zverev
Zverev’s No 2 ranking has become a contentious talking point in recent days, but there is no denying the German has had a hugely consistent season.
A Grand Slam title continues to elude him but he reached the second week at all four Slams – something Alcaraz did not do – and finally reached a second major final at Roland Garros.
Of his Masters 1000 victories in Rome and Paris, it is probably the latter that is the biggest indicator of success heading into the Finals, the 27-year-old cruising to one of the biggest indoor titles on tour.
A champion in Turin back in 2021 – and a two-time event winner overall – Zverev is well-placed to contend for a third ATP Finals title.
1) Jannik Sinner
No surprises here: Sinner is a significant favourite to lift the title in front of what would be a raucous home crowd.
Twelve months ago the Italian made his year-end championships debut and reached the final, losing to Djokovic, but he approaches this year’s event as the dominant force in the men’s game.
Maiden Grand Slam victories at the Australian and US Open have been backed up by Masters 1000 triumphs in Miami, Cincinnati, and Shanghai, alongside further titles in Rotterdam and Halle.
Sinner has been close to untouchable in peak form over the past 11 months, and it will take some effort to stop him in Turin.
