Jannik Sinner downs Carlos Alcaraz as Aryna Sabalenka moves closer to No 1 – our China Open predictions
The Asian swing has been underway for a couple of weeks, but there is a sense that the China Open is where sparks begin to fly.
That should well be the case over the coming week and a half, with some of the biggest names in the men’s and women’s game in action.
This is one of the biggest events on the WTA calendar, with a 96-player draw introduced at the WTA 1000 event.
And, while defending champion Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina are both absent, Aryna Sabalenka, Jessica Pegula, Coco Gauff, and Zheng Qinwen are among the leading contenders.
The ATP 500 event is led by world No 1 Jannik Sinner, though key rival Carlos Alcaraz will look to push him all the way.
Ahead of action in Beijing, we make our key predictions for what should be a fascinating event.
Sinner defends title
Sinner captured the title in Beijing 12 months ago, a victory that helped kickstart his surge to the top of the rankings and Grand Slam glory.
Since beating Daniil Medvedev in last year’s final the Italian has cemented his place as the best hard court player in the world, and that makes him a significant favourite in Beijing this week.
Sinner has been handed a kind initial draw earlier on, though a quarter-final against Grigor Dimitrov and semi-final against Andrey Rublev could prove more of a test.
However, well-rested after his US Open win, he should have enough to beat both men and ultimately go all the way to the title.
Sabalenka continues summer momentum
After a tricky start to the summer, Sabalenka’s Cincinnati and US Open victories have propelled her within touching distance of world No 1.
With defending champion Swiatek not in action – and dropping 1,000 points – the Belarusian is guaranteed to close the gap no matter what.
However, with just 215 points to defend following her quarter-final exit in 2023, Sabalenka has the chance to really apply some pressure with a big run.
Sabalenka has not always played her best tennis immediately after winning a major, but she is a big favourite for this title.
She should at least match her quarter-final run, and realistically go all the way to a fourth title of 2024.
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Alcaraz falls to Sinner
After a hugely disappointing US Open exit, Alcaraz seems to have rediscovered his mojo, producing strong tennis in both the Davis Cup and Laver Cup.
Now comes a return to ATP Tour action, as he looks to avenge his Beijing semi-final loss to Sinner from a year ago.
The world No 3 is the second seed in Beijing and it would be a disappointment if he did not make at least the last four once again, where third seed Daniil Medvedev should provide his first real test.
Alcaraz has the upper hand in that head-to-head and should be able to book a clash against Sinner, who he has beaten the last two times they have played.
But Sinner has played better tennis on hard courts recently and may have the edge if they meet.
Gauff vs Pegula showdown?
America’s two leading WTA players had very contrasting summers.
Gauff struggled to find form and fell in round four of her US Open title defence, while Pegula surged back into form with her run to the Canadian Open title, and then finals in Cincinnati and New York.
World No 3 Pegula is the second seed in Beijing and is projected to face fourth seed Gauff in the last four – but will we see an all-American semi-final?
There are potential stumbling blocks for both – Pegula could face Paula Badosa in the fourth round, Gauff may take on Jelena Ostapenko in the last eight – but we think at least one will make the last four.
Could there be an American finalist? With Emma Navarro also in the bottom half, it seems possible.
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