When could Jannik Sinner lose the world No 1 ranking?
Jannik Sinner has a commanding lead at the top of the ATP Rankings, but there could still be a threat to his status as the world No 1 at some stage in 2025.
Sinner’s dominant performance as he won the Australian Open last month highlighted his vice-like grip on his biggest rivals, with his destruction of world No 2 Alexander Zverev in a one-sided final confirming he is a league of his own.
Carlos Alcaraz is down at No 3 in the current ATP Rankings, even though he is the reigning French Open and Wimbledon champion, with Novak Djokovic’s decision to play fewer tournaments at the back end of his career affecting his hopes of a return to No 1.
For now, Sinner is safe at the top of the rankings, but there are some big factors that could change the dynamics in the men’s game.
HOW THE ATP RANKINGS WORK
ATP Rankings are based on the points earned by the players in official ATP-certified men’s singles or doubles events over the preceding 52-week time frame.
So the points a player earns in an ATP Tour event the previous year count on their ranking for a full year before they fall off.
Players earn 2,000 if they win one of the four Grand Slam titles and 1,200 if they lose in the final at the Australian Open, the French Open, Wimbledon or the US Open.
They also collect points from other ATP Tour events, with the prestigious Masters events offering 1,000 points to the champion, while ATP 500 and ATP 250 tournaments offer 500 points and 250 to the winners.
SINNER SAFE FOR NOW
With a huge lead of around 3,000 points in the ATP Rankings, Sinner’s position as the king of men’s tennis is secure for now.
In fact, he could build on that lead if he wins the Indian Wells Masters next month and then defends his Miami Open title.
The Italian missed large parts of the clay court season last year due to injury, so he will have a chance to collect more ranking points during that period of the season, while he reached the semi-finals and quarter-finals at the French Open and Wimbledon, so there is room for improvement and a rankings point boost in those tournaments.
The bulk of the ranking points Sinner will need to defend come in the second half of the year, with his US Open and ATP Finals wins in 2024 bringing him 3,500 points alone.
WHAT ABOUT CARLOS ALCARAZ?
The Spaniard will struggle to challenge for the world No 1 spot until later in the year.
His wins at the French Open and Wimbledon last year mean he has little room to build more ranking points in those events, but he did miss a large part of the clay court season due to an arm injury in 2024 and he could make up some ground there.
Alcaraz’s best hope of catching Sinner will come in the latter half of 2025, but he may need some help from the Italian to have a chance.
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ALEXANDER ZVEREV’S BEST CHANCE
Germany’s Alexander Zverev may be the most likely candidate to knock Sinner off the top of the world rankings.
He may be a long way behind the Italian right now, but he had a poor clay court season in 2024 prior to his win at the Rome Masters last May, so there is scope to gain points in that period of the season. Zverev reached the French Open final last year, so he will have 1,300 points to defend in that event.
He lost in the last-16 of Wimbledon against Taylor Fritz last year and could do better at the All England Club and he also lost against Fritz in the quarter-finals of the US Open, opening the door for improvement in the final major of the year.
SINNER’S BIG PROBLEM
The battle for the world No 1 ranking could take a huge twist when Sinner learns his fate over a possible one-year suspension from tennis over his failed doping tests in March 2024.
The World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) appealed against a decision not to ban the Italian from tennis after he failed two doping tests at Indian Wells last year.
Sinner successfully argued that he was not responsible for the clostebol entering his system, with the International Tennis Integrity Agenda (ITIA) finding in Sinner’s favour and opting against a ban for the world No 1.
Speaking exclusively to Tennis365, the ITIA has confirmed Sinner faces a minimum one-year ban from tennis if the WADA appeal goes against him and that would ensure he loses all his ranking points by the time he would be eligible to return to tennis in April 2026.
“If you test positive for a banned substance, your starting point for a possible sanction is four years,” ITIA CEO Moorhouse told Tennis365 in an exclusive interview.
“If you can demonstrate that it was not intentional, that reduces to two years. Then, if you can prove there was no fault, there is no sanction.
“In addition, a decision of ‘no significant fault or negligence’ could fall between a reprimand and two years. That applies to any cases around a contaminated substance.
“The first tribunal found that Sinner had ‘no fault or negligence’, that he had used the utmost caution. Therefore, he faced no sanction.
“My understanding from WADA’s statements is they are challenging that because they believe there was an element of fault and that the outcome should have been ‘no significant fault or negligence’.”
IN CONCLUSION
Sinner’s dominant position at the top of the ATP Rankings should not be threatened so long as he avoids a ban in his battle with WADA.
If he is still allowed to play on, he will have a lot of points to defend in the second half of the year, but the level he is playing at should ensure he finishes 2025 as world No 1… with a drug ban the biggest threat to his reign.
READ MORE: Jannik Sinner drug suspension could be ‘seismic’ as appeal date looms
