Jannik Sinner: World No 1’s projected pathway to Italian Open title revealed

Jannik Sinner is back.

The world No 1 has officially served his three-month suspension and is returning to action on home turf this coming week at the Italian Open.

Home fans will be rooting for Sinner to end a 49-year wait for an Italian men’s singles champion at the event, though that is by no means a given.

The tournament has not been his most successful, and the 23-year-old faces a tough draw at the Foro Italico.

Tournament record

This will be Sinner’s sixth appearance at the Italian Open, having made his tournament debut as a wildcard back in 2019.

The world No 1 missed the event in 2024 due to injury, meaning this will be his first Rome campaign since becoming a Grand Slam champion, adding extra significance to his comeback event.

Unfortunately for the Italian, this has not been one of his strongest tournaments on the ATP Tour.

Sinner has a win percentage of 64.3% (9-5) at the Foro Italico, his second-lowest win percentage at any of the nine Masters 1000 events currently on the calendar.

His best result at the tournament was a run to the quarter-final as the 10th seed back in 2022, falling to fourth seed and eventual runner-up Stefanos Tsitsipas in the last eight.

In his last appearance in 2023, he reached the fourth round as the eighth seed before a three-set loss to 24th seed Francisco Cerundolo.

Projected 2025 pathway

Should win his 19th career title, fifth Masters 1000 title, and just his second clay-court title in Rome this fortnight, Sinner will have likely beaten an array of high-level opponents.

The top seed receives a bye in round one, meaning his campaign will start in the second round. The tournament has confirmed that this match will take place on Saturday, May 10th.

Round 2: Mariano Navone or Federico Cina

Sinner has been handed a kind draw for what will be his first match since the Australian Open final back in January.

The Italian could face a first career meeting with Argentina’s Navone, who is a strong clay-court specialist – but who has fallen down to world No 99 in the ATP Rankings after a tricky start to 2025.

Alternatively, he could face rising star and compatriot Cina, a wildcard into the main draw.

The 17-year-old is considered one of the hottest prospects in the men’s game and has won round-one matches at both the Miami Open and Madrid Open this spring.

Round 3: (25) Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Perhaps Sinner’s first significant test in Rome will come against 25th seed Davidovich Fokina in round three.

Davidovich Fokina has been one of the most-improved players of the season so far, with the Spanish star currently 13th in the live ATP Race to Turin.

The 25-year-old has reached finals in Delray Beach and Acapulco this season, and progressed to the semi-final of the Monte Carlo Masters.

Sinner won their only previous clash, at the 2022 Dubai Tennis Championships, in three sets.

Round 4: (15) Frances Tiafoe OR (17) Francisco Cerundolo

On paper, the world No 1 is projected to face 15th seed Tiafoe in the Round of 16.

Should this be the case, Sinner would be a significant favourite heading in; he has won four of their last five meetings, with Tiafoe down at 38th in the live race.

However, the Italian could also find himself against 17th seed Cerundolo – the man who beat him at this event two years ago.

Cerundolo is at a career-high ranking of world No 18 and reached the last four of the Madrid Open last week.

Italian Open News

Jannik Sinner’s practice partners delivers verdict after ‘real workout’

Why Jannik Sinner’s return to tennis is proving to be uncomfortable to watch

Quarter-Final: (6) Casper Ruud

Fresh off his first Masters 1000 title in Madrid, could strong clay-courter Ruud halt Sinner’s campaign in the quarter-final stage?

The Norwegian has a much better record than Sinner in Rome, reaching three semi-finals at the event, and is by far the more accomplished of the two on the dirt.

This is the surface where he is most likely to challenge the Italian, though Sinner holds a perfect 3-0 record in their head-to-head, winning six sets from six.

Ruud himself does not have an easy draw, with 29th seed Matteo Berrettini and 12th seed Ben Shelton present in his mini-section.

Semi-Final: (4) Taylor Fritz OR (7) Alex de Minaur

On paper, a potential semi-final against either fourth seed Fritz or seventh seed de Minaur, who are projected to meet in the quarter-final, does not seem like the toughest task for Sinner.

The Italian has won his last four matches versus Fritz, leading the head-to-head 4-1, while he holds a perfect ten wins from ten against Aussie ace de Minaur.

Clay is not traditionally the strongest surface for either, though Fritz was a quarter-finalist in Rome last year, while de Minaur was a quarter-finalist at Roland Garros last June.

2024 semi-finalist and 11th seed Tommy Paul, 16th seed Andrey Rublev, and 20th seed Jakub Mensik are among the other men who could hypothetically meet Sinner in the last four.

Final: (2) Alexander Zverev OR (3) Carlos Alcaraz

If the draw holds, Sinner should face second seed and world No 2 Alexander Zverev in the final.

Zverev is a formidable force at the Foro Italico, coming into the event as the defending champion – having also won the title back in 2017.

However, the German faces the prospect of a potential semi-final versus world No 3 and third seed Carlos Alcaraz.

Alcaraz triumphed in Monte Carlo and then reached the final in Barcelona at the start of the clay swing, though he had to withdraw from Madrid due to injury.

Sinner may prefer to face Zverev in the final; while he trails 3-4 in the head-to-head, he has won their last two meetings, including the Australian Open final this January.

He is 4-6 down against Alcaraz, with the Spaniard winning their last three clashes.

Read Next: The 9 men with the most Italian Open match wins: Nadal, Djokovic, Federer top 3