Japan Open predictions: Will Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz book final clash?

Oli Dickson Jefford 23 Sep 2025 3:00 PM

Pictured L-R: Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz.

ATP Tour stars Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz.

Tokyo is one of the biggest and most exciting cities across the globe and this week the tennis world heads to the metropolis for the ATP 500 Japan Open, one of the key events at the start of the Asian swing.

Arthur Fils lifted the title last year, downing Ugo Humbert in one of the best matches of 2024, though ongoing injury issues mean that the rising star will not be back to defend his title — meaning a new champion could well be crowned.

With world No 1 Carlos Alcaraz set to make his debut at the event and world No 5 Taylor Fritz looking for his second title at the tournament, it could be a scintillating week of action; here, we make our predictions.

First Quarter

Projected Q/F: (1) Carlos Alcaraz vs (8) Frances Tiafoe

After what ultimately proved to be a disappointing Laver Cup campaign, can Alcaraz right the ship and continue his staggering finals streak on his Tokyo debut?

The world No 1 has reached the final of his last eight tournaments and has what appears to be a comfortable draw early on, opening against Sebastian Baez in round one.

Alcaraz is then set to face Alejandro Tabilo or Zizou Bergs in round two, before a potential quarter-final against eighth seed and close friend Tiafoe.

2025 has proven a difficult year for Tiafoe, and he could face Brandon Nakashima in a crunch all-American battle in the second round.

Prediction: Alcaraz def Nakashima

Second Quarter

Projected Q/F: (4) Casper Ruud vs (7) Denis Shapovalov

Ruud may have won the biggest title of his career at the Madrid Open, but this has undeniably been a difficult season for the Norwegian amid battles with injury and inconsistency.

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Looking to end his season on a high — and potentially surge into ATP Finals contention — the fourth seed has a comfortable opener against home wildcard Shintaro Mochizuki, though will likely face a tough second round against Matteo Berrettini or the vastly-improved Jaume Munar.

All that could lead to a quarter-final against seventh seed Shapovalov, competing for the first time since his encouraging US Open display against Jannik Sinner in New York.

The Canadian is consistently inconsistent and has an intriguing opener against Daniel Altmaier, though he has won three ATP titles in the past twelve months.

Prediction: Shapovalov def Munar

Third Quarter

Projected Q/F: (6) Ugo Humbert vs (3) Holger Rune

Humbert was narrowly beaten by compatriot Fils in a thrilling final twelve months ago, though he has not been in encouraging form since winning the Marseille title back in February.

The Frenchman does not have an easy opener against the resurgent Jenson Brooksby and could also face the much-improved Luciano Darderi in round two; the Italian starts against home hero Yoshihito Nishioka.

Also in this quarter of the draw is third seed Rune, with the world No 11 looking to recapture the kind of form that saw him reach the Indian Wells final and Barcelona Open title this spring.

The Dane faces a tough opener against Hamad Medjedovic and could face Alex Michelsen in round two, the rising American fresh off being part of Team World’s Laver Cup success.

Prediction: Michelsen def Humbert

Fourth Quarter

Projected Q/F: (5) Tomas Machac vs (1) Taylor Fritz

Having beaten both Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev during the Laver Cup, Fritz will now look to ride that momentum and regain the Tokyo title he won back in 2022.

The second seed does not have an easy opening against Gabriel Diallo, though he has already beaten the Canadian at Wimbledon and the Canadian Open this year, and would be a significant favourite versus Yosuke Watanuki or Nuno Borges in round two.

That could see Fritz book a quarter-final against fifth seed Tomas Machac, who has comfortably established himself inside the top 30 this season.

The Czech’s toughest test early on could come in round two, where he is set to face Marcos Giron or Sebastian Korda.

Prediction: Fritz def Machac