Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek: US star challenges Pole for world No 2 ranking

Oli Dickson Jefford 07 Apr 2025 4:05 PM

Jessica Pegula and Iga Swiatek.

It’s official: Jessica Pegula is back as the US No 1.

A run to an eighth career singles title in Charleston has seen the 31-year-old rise back up to world No 3 in the WTA Rankings, knocking compatriot Coco Gauff down to world No 4.

Pegula is now level with her previous career-high ranking – but could she soar even further up the WTA Rankings in the weeks to come?

There is a distinct possibility that she could put current world No 2 Iga Swiatek under significant pressure.

As it stands

With world No 1 Aryna Sabalenka seemingly clear at the top, the most intriguing battle within the top three looks set to be between Swiatek and Pegula.

Swiatek sits on 7,470 points, ahead of Pegula on 6,101 points – a not-insignificant cushion of 1,369 points.

However, that is a significant drop from the 3,265 points that separated the Pole (7,970) and the American (4,705) at the start of the 2025 season.

Pegula has also risen back to third across the opening months of 2025 after finishing 2024 as the world No 7, following a slight dip in form in the aftermath of her run to the US Open final.

In the live WTA Race to Riyadh, only five points separate Swiatek (2,315) and Pegula (2,310), with the five-time Grand Slam champion still searching for her first final since the 2024 French Open.

In contrast, Pegula has already reached four finals this season, winning in Charleston and Austin and finishing as the runner-up in Miami and Adelaide.

Pegula’s clay-court chance

Pegula’s 2024 season was one of extreme highs and challenging lows, with the clay season proving one of her biggest disappointments of the year.

After reaching the last four in Charleston, the 31-year-old did not play again on the dirt last spring due to injury, withdrawing from Stuttgart, Madrid, Rome, and ultimately Roland Garros.

That means that the American has precisely zero ranking points to defend until the grass season starts in June, which is certainly not the case for Swiatek.

The Pole was beaten in the last four of the Stuttgart Open last spring, but then went on a complete tear throughout the rest of the swing.

Swiatek claimed her first Madrid Open title and then a third Italian Open title before claiming her fourth French Open title – a third straight triumph at Roland Garros.

With 2,000 points in Paris, 1,000 points in both Rome and Madrid, and 195 Stuttgart points to her name, the world No 2 has 4,195 points to defend on clay – 56% of the points currently to her name.

With less than 1,400 separating the two, Pegula has a significant chance of overtaking Swiatek – and reaching a new high of world No 2.

WTA Tour News

Jessica Pegula seals significant rankings rise as she claims Charleston Open title

Alex Eala fires ‘improving’ warning to WTA rivals as she reveals Rafael Nadal message

Clay court pedigree

Swiatek is conclusively the leading clay-courter of her generation and arguably one of the best WTA clay-courters of all time.

And, while the Pole has not won a title since the French Open last June, she has not been playing badly as many would make out – and must always be considered a threat on this surface.

While it is unlikely that she will defend all 4,195 points to her name, it also seems unlikely that she will lose all those points – and if she is to return to title-winning ways, it will surely be on the dirt.

The more pertinent question may be how many points Pegula can earn.

The world No 3 is not as comfortable on clay as she is on hard courts, but she is still fairly reliable on the surface, shown by her run to a first clay title in Charleston this past weekend.

Pegula was a Madrid Open finalist back in 2022 – the first of six WTA 1000 finals she has reached – and has also reached the last eight in Rome and Roland Garros.

Eyes on No 1?

Having previously reached world No 1 in doubles, could Pegula set her sights on the world No 1 singles ranking over the clay season?

While it is not impossible for that to happen, it would require a significant swing in her favour.

Incumbent Sabalenka holds a staggering 10,541 points, placing her 4,440 points ahead of Pegula as things stand.

And, while the Belarusian naturally has more clay points to defend, it would still require a significant swing between the two women.

Sabalenka has 1,838 points to defend on the dirt, having reached the Stuttgart quarter-finals, Madrid and Rome finals, and French Open quarter-finals last spring.

Having twice triumphed in Madrid previously, another significant run there is a distinct possibility, while she is also a three-time Stuttgart finalist and French Open semi-finalist across her career.

For Pegula to have any chance of rising to No 1, she would likely need Sabalenka to lose early in all four events – and then win multiple titles across those events.