Will Gauff face Sabalenka or Swiatek? Australian Open women’s singles draw questions

Oli Dickson Jefford 07 Jan 2025 1:37 PM

Coco Gauff, Aryna Sabalenka, and Iga Swiatek.

The Australian Open kicks off this Sunday, and we are just two days away from finding out what paths the leading contenders may have to take to lift the title.

Ahead of Thursday’s big reveal, we analyse some of the key talking points for the impending women’s singles draw.

Will Gauff be in Sabalenka and Swiatek’s half?

World No 1 Aryna Sabalenka, No 2 Iga Swiatek, and No 3 Coco Gauff are undoubtedly the big favourites to lift the title in Melbourne.

Of the three, it is perhaps Gauff who impressed the most in the opening week of the season, not dropping a set at the United Cup, and recording just a third win over Swiatek in 14 meetings.

However, as the third seed, the American will find herself in the same half as one of the two top seeds, and all eyes will be drawn to whether her projected semi-finalist is Sabalenka or Swiatek.

Twelve months ago it was Sabalenka who she faced in the last four, and the Belarusian prevailed in two tight sets to reach the final and ultimately defend her title.

Gauff did beat the world No 1 when they last played at the WTA Finals but, considering Sabalenka’s impressive record in Australia, will she want to be in the same side of the draw as Swiatek instead?

Will Swiatek have a manageable early draw?

Swiatek is the dominant force at Roland Garros but since her 2022 US Open win has struggled at Slams elsewhere, reaching just two quarter-finals and no semi-finals outside of the French Open.

The Pole was a 2022 semi-finalist in Melbourne but fell to Elena Rybakina in the fourth round in 2023, and suffered a stunning loss to Linda Noskova in round three a year ago.

The world No 2 is at risk to big hitters in slightly faster conditions, and it will be intriguing to see what early tests she may have to pass to find herself going deep into the draw.

Swiatek could again find herself facing 29th seed and 2024 quarter-finalist Noskova in the third round, while 16th seed Jelena Ostapenko – who she is 0-4 again – would be her nightmare fourth-round draw.

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Where will Rybakina land?

Outside of the top three seeds, 2023 runner-up Elena Rybakina is the next most likely title contender Down Under.

Despite the ongoing off-court saga concerning Stefano Vukova, the Kazakh impressed at the United Cup, picking up three convincing wins before falling to Swiatek in two tight sets.

Rybakina is the sixth seed and will therefor draw one of the top four in the quarter-finals, meaning there is a strong possibility she will be up against one of Sabalenka, Swiatek, and Gauff in the last eight.

The former Wimbledon winner may hope to draw fourth seed Jasmine Paolini in her quarter, but there is no guarantee that would be an easy match; she fell to the Italian at Roland Garros last season.

All eyes will be on where she lands, and expect particular interest if she is in Sabalenka or Swiatek’s quarter.

What about Raducanu, Osaka & co?

The women’s draw will be stacked with dangerous unseeded players, and none will arguably attract more talk than Emma Raducanu and Naomi Osaka.

Osaka won two of her four Grand Slam titles in Melbourne – in 2019 and 2021 – while Raducanu remains a hot topic of interest and debate over three years on from her 2021 US Open win.

Both come into the event with injury concerns but, assuming they are fit, where they land in Thursday’s draw could pose huge ramifications.

Having made the Auckland final before sustaining her injury, former world No 1 Osaka could prove a particularly dangerous dark horse this tournament.

It will also be worth keeping an eye on where three-time Slam runner-up Ons Jabeur, who has looked in solid form in Brisbane and Adelaide, and 2020 champion Sofia Kenin are placed on Thursday.