Madison Keys’ Madrid Open run provides big rankings boost in US Olympic battle
It was not to be for Madison Keys at the Madrid Open on Thursday, with her campaign ending with a 6-1, 6-3 loss to Iga Swiatek.
But after a slow start to 2024, her run to the last four of a WTA 1000 event is a big step in the right direction, with significant wins over Coco Gauff and Ons Jabeur achieved in the Spanish capital.
And it undoubtedly provides a huge boost for her Olympic hopes, with surely one eye on bettering her fourth-place finish from Rio 2016 at the Paris 2024 Games this summer.
Her semi-final run has put her in the driving seat for an Olympic spot, ahead of compatriot Emma Navarro.
Olympic scenarios
Under ITF and Olympic rules, only four players per nation can compete in each singles draw at the Olympic Games.
With less than three months until Paris 2024, the cutoff for Olympic tennis action – which will be held at Roland Garros – is on June 10th, immediately after the conclusion of the French Open.
Most players inside the top 50 are ensured a place at the Olympics should they wish to compete and have represented their nation at the Billie Jean King Cup enough times.
But for nations with the strength and depth of the US, it is a little more complicated.
Read More: How will tennis players qualify for 2024 Olympic Games in Paris?
Battle for US top four
With huge strength and depth across the women’s game, the race for American players to be ranked within the top four for the nation is hugely competitive.
US No 1 Coco Gauff and No 2 Jessica Pegula are safely inside the top 10 of the WTA Rankings and are effectively guaranteed an Olympic spot should they want it – which it appears they do.
After being ranked outside the top 50 earlier in the season, Danielle Collins’ surge to the Miami and Charleston titles see her ranked safely inside the top 20.
That should also all but guarantee her a place in the Paris 2024 squad, with she, Gauff, and Pegula all with enough BJK Cup appearances to their name.
All that means there is a battle for one spot in the women’s singles event – a battle that looks set to commence between Keys and Navarro.
But after Madrid, it is Keys who holds a significant advantage.
Semifinals unlocked for Madison Keys pic.twitter.com/IGcxJ3Zdaj
— USTA (@usta) April 30, 2024
Rankings cushion
Despite a disappointing loss to Swiatek on Thursday, this has undoubtedly been a hugely positive week for Keys.
Having not won a match in the Spanish capital since 2016, her run to the semi-final has earned her 390 ranking points, and is set to push her up four spots to world No 16 come next Monday.
Crucially, that has extended the gap between her and Navarro ahead of the Italian Open and Roland Garros.
Keys sits on 2,688 points in the WTA live rankings while Navarro can only reach 2,203 points by next Monday, with the US No 5 playing the WTA 125 event in Lleida in a scramble for points.
The highest she can be ranked next week is 21st, meaning she would still have to rise five places and earn 500 ranking points to catch Keys.
Keys does have fourth round points to defend at the Italian Open but that only amounts to 120 points that could come off in Rome, meaning the onus is still on Navarro to chase her down.
The former US Open runner-up also only has round two points to defend at Roland Garros, meaning she cannot drop any significant points before the cutoff.
Mathematically, Navarro can still usurp Keys, but she needs to produce something special.
