Novak Djokovic makes history, Carlos Alcaraz resurgence, Alexander Zverev struggles: Monte Carlo Predictions

Oli Dickson Jefford 06 Apr 2025 6:43 PM

Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, and Alexander Zverev.

The US spring swing is done and dusted, and all eyes now head to what looks set to be a fascinating European clay-court season.

The Monte Carlo Masters well and truly kicks off action this week, and though world No 1 Jannik Sinner is still banned, plenty of huge names are still set to compete.

Stefanos Tsitsipas will look to win a fourth title at the tournament, though Alexander Zverev, Novak Djokovic, and Carlos Alcaraz will try to stand in his way.

Here, we look at the draw – and make our predictions.

First Quarter

Projected Q/F: (1) Alexander Zverev vs (6) Stefanos Tsitsipas

What can we make of Zverev’s form in recent months?

The German looked in sublime form early on at the Australian Open but has not seemed the same player since defeat to Sinner in the final Down Under.

Of the big clay-court events of the spring, Monte Carlo has traditionally been his weakest – reaching the semi-final just twice in eight appearances – and his draw is not exactly friendly here.

Zverev will face Mariano Navone or Matteo Berrettini in his opening match and could face 13th seed Lorenzo Musetti, who beat him twice in 2024, in round three.

And a quarter-final against sixth seed Tsitsipas would be an obstacle for anyone.

The Greek has won this event in three of the past four years and has consistently saved his best tennis for this tournament, with a title in Dubai already to his name in 2025.

The sixth seed is projected to face 10th seed Holger Rune in round three, a match that could have huge implications in this quarter.

Prediction: Tsitsipas def Musetti

Second Quarter

Projected Q/F: (3) Novak Djokovic vs (8) Alex de Minaur

This is technically the least successful Masters 1000 event of Djokovic’s career (he’s *only* won it twice), and he has played down his chances heading in.

But, there can be no denying the third seed has an advantageous draw in Monte Carlo, starting with an opener against either Stan Wawrinka or Alejandro Tabilo – two men struggling for wins this season.

Djokovic is then projected to face 15th seed Grigor Dimitrov, against whom he holds a 13-1 record, in round three – and then eighth seed de Minaur, a rematch of his 2024 quarter-final win.

De Minaur’s season has been solid, if not spectacular, so far – but is clay the surface where the Australian can rediscover his best tennis?

The Australian could face surface specialist – and recent Bucharest finalist – Sebastian Baez in round two, and ninth seed Daniil Medvedev, desperately searching for form, is a projected round-three opponent.

Prediction: Djokovic def Baez.

Third Quarter

Projected Q/F: (5) Jack Draper vs (4) Casper Ruud

Ruud was set to be the fifth seed until Taylor Fritz’s withdrawal, and the move up to fourth seed has had a hugely positive impact on his chances of finally winning a Masters 1000 title.

The Norwegian is one of the strongest clay-courters out there and, make no bones about it, has a hugely beneficial draw in the opening rounds.

Ruud’s first potential seeded opponent would be 14th seed Frances Tiafoe, a man who has struggled to produce strong clay tennis out of Houston, while he is in the same quarter as fifth seed Draper.

Indian Wells champion Draper is a man on the rise but clay has so far not been his surface, and the Brit – in contrast to Ruud – has a challenging mini-section to navigate.

He could face Denis Shapovalov to start, and 11th seed Ben Shelton is his projected third-round opponent, though Tomas Etcheverry and 2022 runner-up Alejandro Davidovich Fokina also lurk here.

Prediction: Ruud def Etcheverry

Monte Carlo Masters News

Novak Djokovic admits ‘expectations are lower’ ahead of Monte Carlo campaign

Carlos Alcaraz opens up on his tennis philosophy and reveals one thing that is ‘not good’

Fourth Quarter

Projected Q/F: (7) Andrey Rublev vs (2) Carlos Alcaraz

As strange as it sounds, Alcaraz is an unknown quarter-final heading into Monte Carlo.

The Spaniard approaches the event after a disappointing Miami Open campaign and has played just once at this event, losing in his opening match back in 2022; he withdrew in both 2023 and 2024.

However, we know how dangerous he can be on clay, and the second seed has the kind of draw that could round him into some form.

Francisco Cerundolo could be an interesting opening test, though Alcaraz has won both their previous encounters, and a projected round three versus 16th seed Felix Auger-Aliassime should be passable.

An interesting test could come in the quarter-final against seventh seed Rublev, but the Russian, now officially working with Marat Safin, has a hugely challenging draw.

Rublev could face an in-form Gael Monfils to start and is projected to face 12th seed Arthur Fils in round three, though Bucharest champion Flavio Cobolli and Marrakech runner-up Tallon Griekspoor also sit in this tough section.

Prediction: Alcaraz def Cobolli