Novak Djokovic Australian Open theory questioned by leading injury expert
Leading injury prevention and athlete welfare expert Stephen Smith has questioned the theory that Novak Djokovic could achieve his best possible physical performance levels at the 2026 Australian Open.
Djokovic‘s ability to stay injury-free was one of his most important qualities for much of his staggering career, with the elbow injury that required surgery in 2018 an outlier.
However, the 24-time major champion has had to battle his body far more frequently since mid-2024, when he sustained a meniscus tear at the French Open.
Djokovic reached the semi-finals at all four Grand Slams in 2025, but he was unable to win a set in any of those matches — and his struggle to arrive in the physical condition required to deliver his best tennis was a factor.
After Djokovic was forced to retire due to a hamstring tear in his Australian Open semi-final with Alexander Zverev, he was also hampered in his Wimbledon semi-final loss to Jannik Sinner, while he appeared to hit the wall physically in his US Open last four defeat to Carlos Alcaraz.
There is a school of thought that Djokovic may be able to extract the best that his 38-year-old body has left to give early in the new season, given this is when he should be at his freshest after the off-season.
A year ago, Djokovic looked in supreme condition and form at the Australian Open, where he was outstanding in beating Alcaraz in the quarter-finals before his campaign was derailed by his hamstring.
The legendary Serbian entered the 2026 Australian Open without having played a match since his triumph in the Athens ATP 250 final on 8 November after he pulled out of the warm-up event in Adelaide.
The world No 4 looked fresh and imperious in his 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 demolition of Pedro Martinez in the opening round at Melbourne Park this year.
In an exclusive interview, Tennis365 asked Smith if Djokovic is likely to be in his best possible physical shape in the early stages of the season.
“Will he be in the best physical shape? I’m not sure,” Smith said.
“It depends how you characterise that. He’ll have certainly had more time to focus on strength and conditioning and things like that.
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“But you speak to any pro player and I think what they’ll tell you is the game exposure and having access to top tier opposition to compete against, they’re the kind of things that sharpen your sword too, so they’d likely suggest that you’d feel better off the back of more and more games and gameplay against top tier opposition.
“So I think certainly he’ll have a strong foundational base of fitness and conditioning going into the season, probably more so than you would four or five tournaments in, but after four or five tournaments they’d be feeling better physically because they’re sharper from the match practice.”
Smith also addressed whether there is an added injury risk for a player of Djokovic’s age playing late at night, which is common at the Australian Open.
“Of course, the older players get, generally that plays a factor in their propensity for injury. But there’s a risk for everybody,” Smith added.
“That build-up of fatigue that comes from being involved in something like that and then to have to come back in and play another high-quality match at a completely different time — you’re putting a lot of stress and strain on somebody’s body doing that. So it’s obviously a huge ask.”
Stephen Smith is the founder and CEO of Kitman Labs — the world’s leading sports science and performance intelligence company.
