Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz to crash out as Alexander Zverev fights back – Madrid Open predictions
The second ATP Masters 1000 clay court tournament of the season is underway in Madrid and the storylines set to emerge from the extended tournament will dominate the tennis agenda for the next two weeks.
This will be the final big tournament before world No 1 Jannik Sinner returns from his doping suspension and the absence of the Italian opens the door for his big rivals to eat into his lead in the world rankings.
All eyes will be on Carlos Alcaraz as he ponders whether to play in Madrid after picking up an adductor injury in his Barcelona Open final defeat against Holger Rune on Sunday, while top seed Alexander Zverev will arrive in Madrid with his confidence boosted by a big win in the ATP 500 tournament in Munich.
Novak Djokovic will play in Madrid for the first time since 2022 and only the second time since 2019, with defending champion Andrey Rublev facing some big pressure as he looks to defend the 1,000 points he collected from this tournament last year and retain his place in the top 10 of the ATP Rankings.
Here are some predictions for this year’s Madrid Masters:
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Novak Djokovic struggles to continue
Novak Djokovic’s increased schedule is something of a mystery and he has arrived in Madrid with his coach Andy Murray as he chases his 100th career title once again.
Djokovic stated time and again last year that he wanted to spend time with his family rather than plan in ATP Tour events, as he was focused only on playing in Grand Slam tournaments.
That stance has shifted dramatically this season, with his eagerness to spend time with his family replaced by a schedule that is essentially matching all the top players in the game.
This Serbian legend will toast his 38th birthday next month, with his presence in Madrid confirming he has the appetite to play more in 2025, but his results have not always been there.
He lost in his first match in Monte Carlo against Alejandro Tabilo amid what he admitted was a ‘horrible’ performance, but time away from the court as he counts down to the French Open was not an option.
Verdict: Djokovic could play Carlos Alcaraz in the semi-finals, but that seems like a long shot. His run to the Miami Open final was an outlier as Djokovic’s form in regular ATP Tour events has been poor and he will crash out early in Madrid.
The Alcaraz question
If this tournament was not in Madrid, there is every chance Alcaraz would not be playing, but he may push himself onto court despite injury worries.
The adductor concern that affected he suffered in the Barcelona final may need time to heal, but skipping a Masters in his homeland would not sit well with Alcaraz and the danger must be that he makes the problem worse.
Alcaraz played in Madrid last year despite an arm problem that needed rest and he may be forced to pull out if his injury is troubling him.
Verdict: Alcaraz will be a threat to win if he is fully fit, but he could bow out early if his leg problem is a concern.
Zverev firing again
Alexander Zverev badly needed the title win he picked up in Munich last Sunday and not just because it fired him back to No 2 in the ATP Rankings ahead of Carlos Alcaraz.
The German openly admitted his confidence was at rock bottom after a tough start to 2025, so now he has a chance to reboot his ambitions heading into a key phase of the season.
Zverev was not at his best in Munich, but self-belief is so important in tennis and he should have some of that back again.
Verdict: Zverev could be tested by the in-form Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in round three and he also has the dangerous duo of Francisco Cerundolo and Arthur Fils in his section of the draw. The time for excuses is over for Zverev and he should make it through to the semi-finals or better.
Watch out for
Jack Draper is an interesting player heading into this clay court season.
The Indian Wells Masters champion has shown that he can be a threat on the red dirt and if his serve is firing in Madrid, he could be a dark horse to have a big run that would push him close to a place in the top five of the ATP Rankings for the first time.
Arthur Fils is another live contender in Madrid, even though he was well beaten by Alcaraz in Barcelona and Holger Rune has to be a contender to win his first ATP Masters 1000 title since Paris in 2022.
At home on the clay, Rune was so impressive as he beat Alcaraz in the Barcelona final and that was far from being his only polished performance last week.
A player under huge pressure is defending champion Andrey Rublev.
The Russian is currently at No 8 in the ATP Rankings, but a 1,000 points will drop off his total this week after his win in Madrid last year and he is down to No 17 in the live rankings.
READ NEXT: ATP Madrid Open draw: Djokovic and Alcaraz set to clash, Zverev headlines top half
