How Novak Djokovic’s Italian Open withdrawal affects his Roland Garros hopes

Novak Djokovic is officially out of the Italian Open, confirming his withdrawal from the Masters 1000 event on Tuesday.

The Serbian’s decision to pull out of the tournament has surprised many, especially off the back of a disappointing clay-court season to date.

Djokovic is yet to win a match on clay on 2025, losing to Alejandro Tabilo in his opening match at the Monte Carlo Masters, and to Matteo Arnaldi in his opening Madrid Open contest.

While it is possible that he could take a wildcard into either the Geneva Open or Hamburg Open, it looks likely that Djokovic will not play again until the French Open.

He is searching for a fourth title at Roland Garros, though his withdrawal from Rome will significantly dent his hopes of victory in Paris.

Rankings ramifications

Djokovic is currently fifth in the ATP Rankings, trailing Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz, and Taylor Fritz.

While Sinner, Zverev, and Alcaraz have a comfortable cushion as the top three, Fritz was potentially within striking distance of Djokovic across the clay-court swing.

Being ranked inside the top four heading into a Grand Slam, and therefore being one of the top four seeds, is hugely beneficial to any player’s chances of success.

Djokovic’s chances of closing down and eventually overtaking Fritz were dented by his early Monte Carlo exit, the Serbian losing his semi-final points from 2024.

However, despite his early exit from Madrid, the gap between him and the American has shrunk significantly.

A semi-finalist in Madrid in 2024, Fritz fell in the fourth round to Casper Ruud on Tuesday.

That sees the world No 4 drop 300 ranking points, slipping to 4,815 points; while Djokovic is still behind on 4,130 points in the live rankings, the gap has undeniably closed.

But Djokovic’s withdrawal from Rome has ended his hopes of overtaking Fritz and ultimately being a top-four seed at the second Grand Slam of the year.

Fritz is defending just 200 ranking points in the Italian capital after reaching the quarter-final last year and, with a cushion of 685 points over Djokovic, he cannot be ranked below the Serbian post-Rome.

Technically, it is still possible for a handful of players to potentially overtake both men once action in Madrid and Rome is complete.

That player would likely need strong runs in both events, with Jack Draper, Alex de Minaur, Daniil Medvedev, and Lorenzo Musetti among the hypothetical candidates.

However, while Fritz could still exit the top four if he were to lose early in Rome, it is now impossible for Djokovic to be the person who overtakes him.

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Seeding implications

As it stands, it looks likely that Djokovic will be in the 5-8 seeding bracket when it comes to the men’s singles main draw in Paris.

While that will still put him in a solid position, it could lead to a blockbuster quarter-final encounter.

Assuming he is in the 5-8 bracket, he would be drawn to face one of Sinner, Zverev, Alcaraz, or Fritz – if he is the fourth seed – in the last eight.

Being drawn in the same quarter as Fritz may not be a disaster, as clay is arguably the American’s weakest surface.

However, a potential quarter-final against one of world No 1 Sinner, defending champion Alcaraz, or 2024 runner-up Zverev would prove a significant challenge.

It is a reality he had to face at the Australian Open back in January, where, as the seventh seed, he was drawn in the same quarter as third seed Alcaraz.

Both men would reach the last eight, and it was Djokovic who prevailed, winning in four sets, though he then had to retire injured against second seed Zverev in the last four.

All eyes will be on what part of the draw he ultimately lands in.

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