Novak Djokovic: Why the Shanghai Masters could be the Serb’s last real chance to win big
Jannik Sinner was the firm favourite to win the 2025 Shanghai Masters, but has Novak Djokovic inherited this tag after the Italian star’s unfortunate exit?
The extreme heat and humidity in Shanghai means playing conditions at the Masters 1000 tournament have been brutal, and Sinner was forced to retire due to cramping in the deciding set of his third round match against Tallon Griekspoor.
Sinner arrived after winning the ATP 500 in Beijing, and the absence of world No 1 Carlos Alcaraz — who withdrew pre-tournament — looked to have cleared his path to another triumph in China.
The world No 2 was the reigning Shanghai champion, having defeated Djokovic in last year’s final to win the prestigious tournament for the first time.
Djokovic, the No 4 seed, was projected to face Sinner in the semi-finals, and the tennis legend could be the man to benefit most from his 24-year-old rival’s retirement.
Since Sinner became a truly elite player in the latter stages of the 2023 season, he has become Djokovic’s most difficult opponent by far.
Starting with his first-ever win over Djokovic at the 2023 ATP Finals in Turin, Sinner has won six of his last seven matches with Djokovic, including the last five in a row.
No other player has beaten Djokovic more than twice in this period, and Sinner has won the last three meetings in straight sets.
In his two wins over Djokovic in 2024 — in the Shanghai final and the Australian Open semi-final — Sinner did not face a single break point. Sinner’s victories against the legendary Serb this year came in the semi-finals at the French Open and Wimbledon.
Given his significant matchup struggles against Sinner, Djokovic now has a huge opportunity to secure a record-extending fifth Shanghai Masters crown.
Djokovic is ranked fifth — which impressive as he is playing just his 12th event of the 2025 season in Shanghai — but he is still the third best player in the world after Alcaraz and Sinner when healthy and motivated.
The 24-time Grand Slam champion reached the semi-finals at each of the four majors this season, a remarkable feat considering he turned 38 in May. He lifted his 100th ATP title at the Geneva Open shortly after his birthday and was a runner-up at the Miami Masters in March.
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Along with second seed Sinner, No 4 seed Taylor Fritz, No 6 seed Ben Shelton, No 13 seed Andrey Rublev and No 14 seed Alexander Bublik have all fallen early in the bottom half of the Shanghai draw.
As a result, Djokovic’s potential route to the final looks wide open, starting with his clash with 41st-ranked Jaume Munar in the last 16. If he overcomes the Spaniard, Djokovic will face 31st seed Gabriel Diallo or world No 44 Zizou Bergs in the quarter-finals.
If he reaches the last four, Djokovic will play one of Holger Rune, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Tallon Griekspoor or Valentin Vacherot.
Rune, the 10th seed, is the biggest threat, but has long struggled for consistency, while Djokovic would be a strong favourite against the other three.
Djokovic’s potential final opponents include Alex de Minaur (7), Lorenzo Musetti (8), Felix Auger-Aliassime (12), Jiri Lehecka (15) and Daniil Medvedev (16). Alexander Zverev, the No 3 seed, exited in the third round.
The Serb has to be seen as the clear favourite as he looks to claim a record-extending 41st Masters 1000 title and his first since he won the 2023 Paris Masters almost two years ago.
Despite a favourable-looking draw, the fact that Djokovic is bidding to win only his third title since his ATP Finals win in November 2023 proves it has become increasingly difficult for him to go the distance and lift trophies.
The long-time world No 1 found himself in a very similar position at this year’s Miami Open. Sinner missed the tournament due to his suspension for failed doping tests, while Alcaraz suffered a shock early exit, leaving Djokovic as the leading contender.
Djokovic went close, but fell to a surprise loss to Jakub Mensik in a final played in stifling conditions.
He may have to overcome an even bigger physical hurdle in Shanghai, having described the conditions as “brutal” after surviving a scare to beat world No 150 Yannick Hanfmann 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 in a gruelling third round match.
As good as Djokovic remains, his age — and the dominance of Alcaraz and Sinner — means this may be his last big chance to win a ‘big title.’
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