Race to Turin: Plotting Lorenzo Musetti’s pathway to ATP Finals qualification

Oli Dickson Jefford 04 Nov 2025 2:30 PM

Pictured: Lorenzo Musetti and Felix Auger-Aliassime.

ATP Tour stars Lorenzo Musetti and Felix Auger-Aliassime.

Lorenzo Musetti was a late wildcard into the Hellenic Championship in Athens this week, and there was only one reason why the Italian decided to play the ATP 250 event.

With his place at the ATP Finals put in jeopardy, Musetti is chasing crucial ranking points in the Greek capital as he looks to seal the eighth and final automatic qualifying spot ahead of Felix Auger-Aliassime.

Here, we look at what the world No 9 needs to do in Athens to confirm his place in Turin, and the pathway he may have to face to achieve just that.

What does Musetti need to do to qualify?

Having entered the Paris Masters in a seemingly comfortable position to qualify, the Italian was made to pay for his early exit inside the La Defense Arena.

Beaten in round two after a first-round bye, Musetti picked up just 10 points for his run — while Auger-Aliassime earned 650 points for reaching the final.

That leaves the Canadian on 3,845 points heading into this decisive final week, with ninth-placed Musetti 160 points back on 3,685 points.

With only 19 tournaments contributing to a player’s ATP Ranking, Musetti will not start adding points to his ranking unless he reaches the semi-final.

That means that, to overtake Auger-Aliassime, Musetti must win the title in Athens.

A run to the title at the ATP 250 event will place him on 3,885 points for the year, 40 points ahead of his rival.

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Any other result will leave Musetti in ninth, and seal the Canadian’s ATP Finals qualification.

Projected pathway to Hellenic Championship title

As the second seed, Musetti has received an opening-round bye, meaning his campaign will not start until round two.

Round 2: Musetti’s campaign will begin on Wednesday, and the Italian now knows he will face three-time Grand Slam champion Stan Wawrinka to start his campaign. Wildcard Wawrinka shocked Botic van de Zandschulp in three sets to reach round two, with the world No 159 now looking to pull off an even bigger upset.

Quarter-final: Should he beat Wawrinka, Musetti is projected to face fifth seed Alexandre Muller in the last eight. The Frenchman saw off Jan-Lennard Struff in a tight three-setter in round one, and will face Tomas Etcheverry or Mackenzie McDonald in round two.

Semi-final: On paper, Musetti is projected to face third seed and fellow Italian Luciano Darderi in the last four on Friday. However, Darderi is in a tough part of the draw, with an opener against Miomir Kecmanovic and a potential quarter-final versus Sebastian Korda or Damir Dzumhur.

Final: If the Italian does reach the final, he could face an incredibly tough test against top seed and tennis icon Novak Djokovic in the championship match. World No 5 Djokovic looks set to compete in Turin despite previous rumours he would withdraw, and starts his quest for the Hellenic Championship title against Alejandro Tabilo on Tuesday.