Sabalenka’s quest, Swiatek & Gauff’s struggles, Raducanu’s rankings chance – Madrid Open predictions
The Madrid Open women’s singles draw is underway, with plenty of key protagonists set to kickstart their campaigns later this week.
Iga Swiatek downed Aryna Sabalenka in a legendary final twelve months ago, but what should we watch out for in 2025?
Here, we look at some of the key storylines that could emerge inside the Caja Magica.
Sabalenka’s revenge
Having lifted the Madrid Open title in 2021 and 2023, Sabalenka just missed out on a third crown in 2024, spurning three championship points as Swiatek prevailed in an epic final.
And, the Belarusian comes into Madrid off the back of a hugely frustrating defeat at the WTA Stuttgart Open, losing to Jelena Ostapenko to fall to 0-4 in finals at the event.
However, that defeat – and her loss in Madrid a year ago – will surely increase her motivation, and she heads into the tournament as conclusively the form player of 2025.
Conditions in Madrid suit Sabalenka perfectly, with the altitude perfect for her big ballstriking and allowing her to dictate against even the biggest hitters.
The world No 1 has a pretty solid draw at the event, with 15th seed Amanda Anisimova a potential test in the fourth round.
However, she has a 6-0 record against projected quarter-finalist Zheng Qinwen and a 7-2 record against potential semi-final opponent – and third seed – Jessica Pegula.
Sabalenka looks primed for a strong run in Madrid – and a record-equalling third title looks likely.
Swiatek’s struggle
Swiatek’s maiden Madrid Open title a year ago kickstarted a dominant clay season that ultimately saw her triumph in Rome and Roland Garros, though she has not even reached a final since then.
Clay is surely the surface that she is most likely to turn around her form on, though the world No 2 has been handed a precarious path here.
She will start against Alex Eala, who beat her in Miami, and then faces a third round against 31st seed Linda Noskova, who has never proven to be an easy match-up for the Pole.
Thirteenth seed Diana Shnaider is her projected fourth-round opponent but she could also face 23rd seed Jelena Ostapenko, who moved to 6-0 against Swiatek with victory in Stuttgart.
It would be unwise and foolish to rule out Swiatek on clay, but a challenging early draw here could well spell trouble.
Madrid Open News
Alex Eala close to Naomi Osaka record as she books Iga Swiatek rematch in Madrid
Gauff’s search for Madrid form
World No 4 Coco Gauff arguably faces two major issues heading into her Madrid Open campaign in 2025.
The first is her ongoing form struggles, with the American facing issues with her serve in 2025, and failing to reach a WTA Tour semi-final this season.
Gauff’s second issue is her underwhelming history in Madrid, with the 21-year-old holding a 5-4 win-loss record at the tournament, never making it to the quarter-final in four previous appearances.
2024 proved a step in the right direction, reaching the fourth round for the first time, but should we realistically have high expectations for her at the event this year?
Gauff has a good draw in the Spanish capital, with a 2-0 record over 25th seed Leylah Fernandez – the first seed she could face – and with projected fourth-round opponent Beatriz Haddad Maia out of form.
However, with 20th seed Clara Tauson also potentially waiting in the second week, and in-form seventh seed Mirra Andreeva in this quarter, a deep run could be a challenge.
Raducanu’s rankings quest
Emma Raducanu returned to the top 50 with her successful run to the Miami Open quarter-finals, but has not played since then – so what comes next?
The Brit suffered a disappointing round-one exit to Maria Lourdes Carle in 2024, so has few ranking points to defend at a tournament she reached round three at back in 2022.
Suzan Lamens may not be the easiest opening draw for Raducanu, but it is certainly a winnable match for her, as is 24th seed Marta Kostyuk in round two.
Kostyuk has fallen out of the top 30 after a bumpy start to the year and was a player Raducanu beat in Madrid three years ago, suggesting a win for Brit would not be a surprise.
With potential round three opponent Paula Badosa, the ninth seed, facing physical issues recently, there could be an opening for Raducanu in this part of the draw.
Currently 49th in the world, Raducanu can surge closer to the top 40 at this event.
